方恩格专栏》澳洲议会通过挺台决议之后
外交部。（资料照）
2024年8月21日星期三，澳大利亚参议院（澳洲国会上院）通过了一项跨党派决议，批评中国试图利用联合国第2758号决议宣扬其对台湾拥有主权的主张；该决议内容承认中华人民共和国为中国在联合国组织的「唯一合法代表」。
澳大利亚参议院的决议指出，联合国第2758号决议「并未确立中华人民共和国对台湾的主权，也未决定台湾在联合国的未来地位」。
此决议的短期目标是为了促进台湾实质参与联合国相关组织，如世界卫生组织。
澳大利亚参议院的这项决议，紧随7月30日在台北召开的对中政策跨国议会联盟（IPAC）年会，该会议通过了一项供世界各国议会使用的「范本」决议。这项决议范本是IPAC台北峰会的亮点之一，吸引了来自23个国家的49名成员参加，而台湾的外交部也随即发布了中英文的新闻稿，感谢IPAC提出有关联合国第2758号决议的「范本」决议。
事实上，在IPAC峰会中，赖清德总统发表了一篇题为「台湾的全球愿景」的演讲，延续了前总统蔡英文始于第二任期的一项政策，即是将两岸关系「国际化」；这一政策源于她在2019年竞选连任期间，成功借鉴香港的局势，并将其与台湾的处境相提并论。
然而，两岸关系国际化的策略并未能在2022年带给民进党地方选举的胜利。此外，这也似乎未能帮助民进党在2024年总统和立委选举中取得优势，因为赖清德2024年总统大选的胜利主要源自于国民党和民众党选票分裂，而民进党也失去了立法院的多数席次。
另一个两岸关系国际化的例子是，西方国家政府在高级官员或领导人会晤后所发表的联合声明中，经常会提到两岸和平与稳定的重要性。外交部也会迅速感谢这些国家所发表的声明，例如近日感谢澳洲和纽西兰总理在8月中旬会晤后的声明中提及台海议题。
台湾希望将自身情况国际化是可以理解的。如果有更多外国呼吁中国不要武力犯台，这可能会促使中国重新考虑是否以军事手段统一台湾。两岸关系国际化也会导致更多的外国政客访台，尽管中国对此并不乐见。在过去的一周，访台政客包括美国前驻联合国常代、于共和党总统大选中败选的候选人—妮基·海莉以及日本前首相野田佳彦。海莉在台北凯达格兰论坛上发表演讲，虽然可能有收演讲费，但台湾政府仍对她的访问表示感谢。
在澳大利亚参议院通过其决议后，可能会发生以下几件事情：
1. 更多议会通过类似决议：鉴于参加IPAC会议的成员国来自23个国家，这些议会成员国中的许多人很有可能会试图说服自己国家的议会通过类似于澳大利亚参议院的决议。在一些国家，这可能只会发生在两院制国会中的其中一院，而在其他国家，则可能出现在上议院和下议院之间。
2. 外交部的努力：台湾的外交部及其驻世界各地的代表处都很可能会以澳大利亚参议院的例子作为榜样，并更努力地说服各国议会通过类似的决议。许多西方国家可能会照做。甚至日本也可能效法，因为尽管多年以来有些人呼吁日本通过类似于美国《台湾关系法》的法律，但至今尚未实现。
3. 台湾将由衷感谢通过类似决议的国家：台湾的外交部无疑会对通过此类决议的议会表示感谢。例如，澳大利亚参议院通过决议后，外交部第二天便发布了新闻稿表示感谢。
4. 中国将怒不可遏：中国肯定会批评澳大利亚参议院以及任何其他通过此类决议的国家议会。中国还可能进行政治报复，如中断双边对话，或是采取贸易报复措施，如近年来当立陶宛等国家对台湾过度支持时所做的那样。又或者，中国可能不会向通过决议的国家进行报复，而是会将矛头转向台湾。
5. 美国国会可能通过类似决议：在这类决议的通过中，最重要的国家当然是美国了。事实上，类似措辞已出现在2023年美国联邦众议院外交委员会通过的一项友台法案中。每年，美国国会通常都会通过一些友台决议，或是在通过的法案中加入亲台言论。因此，如果这种情况再次发生，也不会令人感到惊讶，就连其中包含IPAC的范本决议言论也不足为奇。
但后续会如何呢？如果川普在11月的总统大选中获胜，并于2025年1月重返白宫，他很可能会再次将美国撤出世界卫生组织，并建立一个替代的全球性卫生组织，让台湾参与其中。反之，如果副总统贺锦丽赢得大选，她必定会继续支持台湾参与世界卫生组织；即使她的国务卿每年只会发表一次相关声明，希望台湾能够实质参与世界卫生组织或其他联合国相关组织。
最终，只要中国的政策是坚持台湾政府接受「九二共识」作为两岸关系的基础，台湾实质参与联合国相关组织的可能性就会降到极低，甚至为零。
除非美国退出世界卫生组织，否则除了美国之外，没有任何西方国家会因台湾缺乏实质参与而抵制联合国组织。虽然在外国议会通过有关中国不当使用联合国第2758号决议解释的决议时，台湾想要加以庆祝的心态是可以理解的；但是事实究竟为何，仍须铭记在心。
（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席，许淳恩翻译）
What Comes Next After Australia Senate Taiwan Resolution?
By Ross Darrell Feingold
Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad
X: @RossFeingold
On Wednesday August 21, Australia’s Senate (the upper house of the Australian Parliament) passed a bipartisan resolution criticizing China's attempts to use United Nations Resolution 2758 (which admitted the People's Republic of China to the United Nations as the "only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations") to advance China’s claim that it has sovereignty over Taiwan.
The Australia Senate resolution said that United Nations Resolution 2758 "does not establish the People's Republic of China's sovereignty over Taiwan and does not determine the future status of Taiwan in the UN".
The short term goal of such a resolution is to facilitate Taiwan’s substantive participation in United Nations affiliated organizations such as the World Health Organization.
The Australia Senate resolution follows on the recent meeting of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (“IPAC”) in Taipei on July 30, which passed a “model” resolution for parliaments worldwide to use on this topic. The model resolution was one of the highlights of the IPAC summit in Taipei attended by forty nine members from twenty three countries, and Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately issued a press release in English and Mandarin to thank IPAC for the proposed “model” about United Nations Resolution 2758.
In fact, at the IPAC summit President William Lai delivered a speech titled “Taiwan’s Global Vision”. These continues a policy begun during former President Tsai Ing-wen’s second term in office to “internationalize” cross-straits relations, which followed on her successful comparison of Taiwan to Hong Kong during her re-election campaign in 2019.
However, internationalizing Taiwan’s situation did not lead to electoral success for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the 2022 local election. It probably did not help the DPP in the 2024 presidential and legislative elections either, as William Lai’s victory in the 2024 presidential election arose from the split in the Chinese Nationalist Party and Taiwan People’s Party vote for president, and, the DPP lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan.
Another example of the internationalization of cross-straits relations is the frequent statements about the importance of cross-straits peace and stability that appears in joint statements western world governments issue after senior officials or leaders meet. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also quick to thank such countries for these statements, such as in recent days a statement thanking the prime ministers of Australia and New Zealand for their mention of the Taiwan Strait in a statement issued after they met in mid-August.
It is understandable that Taiwan wishes to internationalize its situation. If more foreign countries call on China not to use its military to force Taiwan’s surrender, it might make China reconsider an invasion as a method to bring about unification. Internationalizing Taiwan’s situation also results in more politicians from other countries visiting Taiwan, despite China’s anger about such visits. Just this past week visiting politicians included former United States Ambassador to the United Nations (and failed candidate in the Republican Party primary for president) Nikki Haley, and former Japanese Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko (野田 佳彦). It’s possible that Haley received a speaking fee to speak at the Ketagalan Forum in Taipei, but her visit is still appreciated by the government.
Several things are possible to occur after the Australia Senate passed its resolution:
1. More Parliaments Will Pass Similar Resolutions: Given that attendees at the IPAC meeting came from twenty three countries, it is very likely that many of these parliamentarians will try to persuade their own parliaments to pass a similar resolution to what the Australia Senate passed. In some countries this might occur only in one house of a bicameral parliament, while in other countries it might occur in both the upper house and the lower house.
2. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Efforts: Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and its representative offices throughout the world, will likely cite the Australia Senate as an example to follow, and increase efforts to convince parliaments around the world to pass similar resolutions. Many western countries might do so. Perhaps even Japan will do so, even if for many years some have called on Japan to pass a law similar to the United States’ Taiwan Relations Act but this has not happened yet.
3. Taiwan Will Enthusiastically Thank Countries That Pass Similar Resolutions: Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs will of course thank the parliaments that pass such resolutions. The day after the Australia Senate passed its resolution, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a press release to express its thanks.
4. China Will React Angrily: Certainly China will criticize the Australia Senate, and the parliament of any other country that passes such a resolution. China might also retaliate politically (such as by cutting off bilateral dialogues) or initiate trade retaliation as it has done in recent years when countries such as Lithuania became too supportive of Taiwan. Alternatively, rather than retaliate against the country whose parliament passed the resolution, China might retaliate against Taiwan.
5. The United States Congress Might Pass a Similar Resolution: The most important country to pass such a resolution will of course be the United States. In fact, similar wording was included in a proposed pro-Taiwan bill passed by a House committee in 2023. Every year, the United States Congress usually passes pro-Taiwan resolutions (or includes pro-Taiwan language in bills that are passed into law), so it will come as no surprise that it will happen again and might include the model IPAC language.
But what will happen afterwards? If Donald Trump wins this November’s presidential election and returns to the White House in January 2025, he will likely once again withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization and there will be hope that the United States creates an alternative global health organization that Taiwan will participate in. But if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, she will certainly continue Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Organization, even if her Secretary of State will issue a statement once a year expressing hope that Taiwan can substantively participate in the World Health Organization or other United Nations affiliated organizations.
Ultimately, as long as China’s policy is to insist that the Taiwan government accept the “1992 Consensus” as the basis for cross-strait relations, the likelihood of Taiwan’s substantive participation in United Nations affiliated organizations is extremely low, or even non-existent.
None of the western countries (unless the United States withdraws from the World Health Organization) will boycott United Nations organizations over the issue of Taiwan’s lack of substantive participation. Although it is understandable that Taiwan wants to celebrate when a foreign parliament passes a resolution disputing China’s interpretation of United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758, this reality must also be kept in mind.