紐時賞析／川普兩度遭暗殺未遂 美政治暴力問題已失控？未必

美国前总统川普今年7月在宾州巴特勒造势活动遇刺地点。（纽约时报）

Political Violence Problem in U.S.? Data Is Mixed.

美国政治暴力问题已然失控？未必

When former President Donald Trump was nearly assassinated in Pennsylvania in July, a Dartmouth College political scientist named Sean Westwood happened to be in the middle of a research project asking Americans about political violence.

前总统川普7月在宾州差点被暗杀时，达特茅斯学院一个名叫威斯伍德的政治学家正在进行一项研究，询问美国人政治暴力相关问题。

At the time, many feared that the shooting would lead to a growing appetite for more violence.

当时，许多人忧心，这起枪击案将导致人们对更多暴力的兴趣升高。

But Westwood and his colleagues found the opposite. In the weeks after the attack, Americans’ support for partisan violence, and murder specifically, diminished — and fell most sharply among Republicans who identify with Trump.

但威斯伍德和他的同事发现相反状况。那起攻击事件发生后数周内，美国人对于党派暴力的支持降低，特别是对谋杀，而且在认同川普的共和党人中降得最明显。

Americans are still exceptionally hostile about people who disagree with them on politics, but “an assassination attempt did not inflame the tensions,” the authors write in a forthcoming paper in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

研究作者们在即将发表于「美国国家科学院院刊」的论文中写道，美国人对政治上和他们意见不同的人仍特别有敌意，但「一起谋刺事件并未激起紧张局势」。

Two unsuccessful attempts on Trump’s life, a daily barrage of violent threats against public officials of all stripes and finger-pointing from both parties have fueled the impression that the country’s politics are spinning out of control.

两次刺杀川普未遂事件、日常一连串对各类公职人员的暴力威胁及两党互相指责，加强政治失控的印象。

But some common assumptions about political violence in America are not reinforced by recent data, according to several new studies.

但多项新研究指出，一些对美国政治暴力的普遍假设，没有被数据进一步证实。

Instances of extremist violence have actually declined in recent years by some key measures. Although some Americans continue to say they approve of political violence, support for the most serious types of violence has not increased amid election-related tensions this year.

一些关键指标显示，极端主义暴力事例近年来其实正在减少。虽然一些美国人持续表示他们支持政治暴力，但今年关于选举的紧张局势中，对于最严重类型暴力的支持没有增加。

And neither apocalyptic political rhetoric nor extraordinary events over the past few years have produced eruptions of political violence of the sort that many feared would become more commonplace after the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

而且，过去几年无论是末日式政治言论，还是意想不到的事件，都没有引爆许多人所担心2021年1月6日国会暴乱后会更普遍的那类政治暴力。

In short, even amid an explosive political climate and some high-profile incidents, politics may not be becoming broadly more violent.

总之，即使处于一触即发的政治情势和一些备受关注的事件中，大体上而言，政治可能并未变得更暴力。

Such findings come with many caveats. Political violence in the United States remains rare, leaving relatively few data points to study. Trend lines can vary widely depending on the how you define violence and what questions you try to answer.

这类发现伴随许多警告。美国政治暴力事件仍然少见，导致可供研究的相关数据相对较少。趋势线差异可能很大，取决于如何定义暴力，及尝试回答怎样的问题。

In the United States as in other countries, recorded acts of right-wing political violence have been deadlier than left-wing violence. But Trump, not President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris, has been the target of two apparent assassination attempts this summer.

美国和其他国家一样，有纪录的右派政治暴力一直比左派致命。但川普成为今夏两起暗杀企图的目标，而非总统拜登或副总统贺锦丽。

Those attempts are also a stark reminder that such nation-transforming tragedies do not require many people — or even more than one.

这些企图也清楚提醒人们，这类彻底改变国家的悲剧不需很多人参与，甚至只要一人就行。

文／Charles Homans　译／罗方妤