张竞》乌克兰永远别指望白骑士来救

张竞》乌克兰永远别指望白骑士来救

有位西方媒体朋友问我对于俄乌冲突感想。我回答说：「依据目前西方社会难容异见氛围下，我的想法恐怕是政治极不正确；您问我也是白问，因为您的媒体绝对不会刊登我的观点。」下面是我的拙见，不知您是否同意？

No White Knight for Ukraine

乌克兰永远别指望白骑士来救

It is now almost three months of severe conflict from when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. Frankly, the West is certainly not a white knight for Ukraine, notwithstanding that many western countries provided various forms of assistance. Nevertheless, absent the actual deployment of armed forces and a substantial involvement in military operations, all the aid provided to Ukraine by the United States and its western allies will only extend the duration of the fighting but is not necessarily a proper approach to end the conflict.

从二月底俄罗斯入侵乌克兰到如今已经接近三个月；平心而论，尽管有许多西方国家以不同方式解囊济助，但西方绝对无法成为解救乌克兰之白骑士(救星)。不论如何尽力，若不实际挥军派兵入境参战，所有由美国与其他西方盟友所提供之援助，只能将战事继续延长，但恐怕并非终结冲突妥善之计。

Whether or not the West’s true intention is to be a white knight that saves Ukraine remains to be seen. What we do see so far is western involvement in the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv is limited to selective engagement. There is no fundamental and decisive action to defuse the crisis, but only indirect schemes to weaken Russia and make Ukrainians the gun ashes of a prolonged armed conflict.

到目前为止，西方各国是否真心愿意承担救援乌克兰重责实难论断。但就吾人所见，西方涉入俄乌双方冲突，其实并未全心投入，同时亦显然有所取舍；并未以断然手法正本清源化解危机，反而是拐弯抹角企图削弱俄罗斯，并让乌克兰陷身于长期冲突沦为砲灰。

How does this conflict enlighten the many states which face relatively powerful and potential threats from a neighbor? What lessons will small nations learn from Ukraine’s experience once the cost in blood and other losses are calculated? The most important lesson perhaps should be that emerging threats must be defused before a conflict erupts. We must constantly face many black knights. There are various threats, either conventional or non-conventional, towards our national security. We must constantly fund the cost to neutralize those black knights, either with regard to their capabilities or their intentions, before such black knights become determined to use force to harm us.

此场冲突对于多个面对强邻威胁入侵之国有何启发呢？此等弱小国家将能从乌克兰付出流血与毁伤惨痛代价之经验中，获得何种教训呢？最重要之启示或许就是要在战争冲突真正爆发前，预先化解正在浮现之威胁。世道不宁，吾人永远必须面对人间恶徒；天下威胁处处无所不在，不论其系传统类型抑或是非传统模式，吾人国家安全时时面对考验。吾人须不断尽一切努力化解各项矛盾与威胁，不论是从实力上使其有所顾忌，不敢轻越雷池，抑或是在敌欲诉诸武力相向伤害吾人之前，针对其意图化解敌意消弭歧见。

No white knight will save you. If someone does come to support you, a free lunch will not be served. The bill must always be paid in the future. You can only rely on yourself. The most stupid, and worst, error ever in strategic calculus is “too late”. Preventive measures implemented in advance are always a better any contingency plan than a plan deployed after a conflict occurs. The inability to foresee an emerging crisis that emanated from its diplomatic maneuvers, while also betting its fate on illusive commitments from potential white knights, was a suicidal choice that the Ukraine leadership still fails to understand until now.

不要指望他人作为救星前来搭救；就算真有人愿意前来相挺，天下也没有白吃的午餐；到头来还是要在未来某个时间付出代价买单。天下只有自己最可靠；在战略算计上最愚蠢，并且亦是最糟糕之失误就是“太迟”。及早采取防范应对措施，永远会比等到冲突爆发后在采取应变处置作为好得多。不去借由外交作为前瞻可能浮现之危机，却将未来命运押注在看起来会扮演救星者之空口无凭吹嘘承诺，根本就是自取灭亡，但这却是乌克兰政府高层到现在还看不透想不清楚之无情现实。

忠言逆耳，良药苦口，向来如此。

作者为英国博士、中华战略学会研究员，曾任国军舰长

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