方恩格专栏》川普与贺锦丽之争 善意不押宝
美国前总统川普（Donald Trump）上周四在共和党全国代表大会上正式接受提名，而总统拜登（Joe Biden）则在上周日宣布退出竞选，并转而支持贺锦丽（Kamala Harris）成为民主党的总统提名人。（合成图／路透）
近几周，美国总统大选的发展前所未有。首先，前总统川普与现任总统拜登之间的辩论落幕，大多数人认为这对拜登来说是一场灾难。其次是对前总统川普的暗杀未遂事件。随后在共和党全国代表大会上，川普正式被提名为候选人，并宣布参议员范斯将成为他的副手。在共和党全国代表大会期间，《彭博社》发表了对川普的采访，其中川普评论了台湾的国防以及半导体产业。接着，现任总统拜登宣布他退出总统大选。最后，现任副总统贺锦丽在拜登的支持下，开启了她的总统竞选活动。
有鉴于美国在台湾经济及国防问题上所扮演的角色，这些事件无疑在台湾引起了巨大的关注。台湾应该如何应对这些事件呢？台湾的政府及各界应该注意以下几个方面：
一、台湾政府不应选边站：在2020年美国总统选举中，尽管蔡政府发表声明驳斥，但他们仍押宝川普连任成功，这也可以理解。川普政府对台湾非常友好，包括同意向台湾出售大规模且昂贵的武器，如F-16V战机和M1A2战车。此外，当时的美国卫生部长阿札尔访问台湾，而美国经济成长、能源与环境次卿柯拉克也随即来台访问。自1979年美国与中华民国断交以来，这些美国高级官员的访问是史无前例的。总体而言，川普政府的外交和国家安全团队态度为抗中保台。
拜登政府上台后，台湾依旧持续欢迎前川普政府官员，如前国务卿蓬佩奥和柯拉克来台访问，无论拜登政府会如何看待这些与其政敌的互动。预计下周在台北举行的对华政策跨国议会联盟（缩写为IPAC），将会有美国国会议员参加；这意味着台湾政府将会有更多机会表明它更偏袒共和党，因为IPAC（态度较抗中）通常吸引更多的共和党籍国会议员而非民主党人。
二、对副总统贺锦丽说些好话：虽然目前无法预测美国总统选举的结果，但不能排除贺锦丽会赢得选举。台湾政府可以通过说贺锦丽的好话来为这个可能性做好准备。目前已经有些主流媒体发表了相关的头条，例如《美国之音》的「一探贺锦丽对美国对中政策的看法」、《政客》的「贺锦丽对中国的影响」以及《彭博社》的「中国对贺锦丽担任总统的期望」。
尽管贺锦丽的外交政策经验有限，但在她担任副总统的期间，曾多次访问亚洲。2021年她访问了越南和新加坡，2022年她访问了日本和韩国，随后又访问了泰国和菲律宾，2023年她参加了在印尼举行的东南亚国家协会(ASEAN)年度高峰会议。在2022年访问日本期间，贺锦丽指责了中国是「破坏国际规则秩序中的关键要素」，并称中国在东海、南海和台湾海峡的行为「令人不安」。虽然贺锦丽尚未成为印太地区的专家，但她在近年来对该地区已经有了一定的了解，因此台湾应该为她当选的可能性做好准备。
三、不要扭曲美国政客的言论：台湾的许多媒体报导称，川普向台湾索取「保护费」。然而，正如台湾评论家张竞指出的那样，在《彭博社》的专访当中，川普并未说出「保护费」这个词。事实上，川普只是延续了他在总统任期内的一贯立场。无论是北大西洋公约组织成员国、日本还是韩国，川普都要求这些美国盟友在国防上投入更多的资金。川普这样做是正确的，并且他也取得了成果。如果台湾未来想避免川普或其他美国政客发表类似评论，台湾需要做的事情很简单：台湾需要在国防上的投入，远超过目前的国防预算。
四、台积电股东不应反应过度：在川普接受《彭博社》采访并表示台湾「占据了我们100%的半导体制造业」和「台湾应该为了国防付我们钱。你知道，我们与保险公司并无二致。台湾没有给我们任何东西。」之后，台积电的股价下跌。无论是作为候选人还是总统，川普的这些言论与为何台积电是一家优秀且赚钱的公司无关。尽管有些人猜测如果川普再度上任，他可能会取消晶片法案所提供的补贴；但目前没有理由相信他会这么做。
五、川普对台湾人民表示了解：在《彭博社》的采访中有个好消息，川普表示「我对台湾人民非常了解，并且非常尊重他们」。笔者对川普声称他对台湾人民非常了解感到惊讶。尽管川普在台湾并没有进行过业务，但他在鸿海于威斯康辛州设厂的谈判期间认识了郭台铭。
总之，即使赖政府实际上希望川普再度当选，台湾在美国选举中仍须保持中立。台湾应像其他国家一样，为川普或贺锦丽的当选做好准备。台湾没有政治、军事或经济上的筹码去赌美国选举。然而，笔者同意川普的看法，台湾应该在国防上投入更多筹码！（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席，许淳恩翻译）
Is Taiwan Taking Sides in US Election?
By Ross Darrell Feingold
Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad
X: @RossFeingold
In recent weeks, developments in the United States presidential election were unprecedented. First, there was the debate between former President Trump and current President Biden, which most people viewed as a disaster for Biden. Then there was the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. This was followed by the Republican National Convention at which Trump was formally nominated and he announced that Senator J.D. Vance would be his running mate. During the Republican National Convention, a Bloomberg interview with Trump was published, in which Trump commented about Taiwan’s national defense as well as Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. Then, current President Joe Biden announced he would withdraw from the presidential election. Finally, current Vice President Kamala Harris, with Biden’s endorsement, began her presidential campaign.
These events of course attracted an enormous amount of attention here in Taiwan, given the role of the United States in Taiwan’s economy and, of course, Taiwan’s national defense.
So how should Taiwan react to these events? There are several things that the Taiwan government, politicians, and the business world should keep in mind.
1. Taiwan Government Shouldn’t Take Sides: It’s understandable that in the 2020 U.S. presidential election that the Taiwan government, despite its denials, hoped that Trump would win re-election. The Trump Administration was very friendly towards Taiwan. This included agreeing to large (and expensive) weapons sales to Taiwan such as F-16 fighter planes and M1A2T Abrams Tanks. It also includes the visit to Taiwan of the then-Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, which was followed shortly after by the visit to Taiwan of the then-Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Keith Krach. Such high-level visits by U.S. government officials were unprecedented during the period after the United State derecognized the Republic of China in 1979. In general, officials on the Trump Administration’s foreign policy and national security teams were very tough on China, and very pro-Taiwan.
After the Biden Administration came into office, Taiwan has continued to welcome to Taipei former members of the Trump Administration, such as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Keith Kratch, regardless of how the Biden Administration might view such interactions with their political enemies.
With the meeting next week in Taipei of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which will be attended by Members of the U.S. Congress, there will be more opportunities for the Taiwan government to display that it is partial to Republicans, as IPAC (being tough on China), generally attracts more Republicans than Democrats.
2. Say Some Nice Things About Vice President Kamala Harris: Although at present it’s impossible to predict the U.S. presidential election result, it’s possible that Harris might win. The Taiwan government can prepare for that possibility by saying a few nice things about Harris. Already there are articles in major media with headlines such as in Voice of America “A look at Harris’ views on US policy toward China”, in Politico “What Kamala would mean for China” and in Bloomberg “What China expects from Kamala Harris presidency”.
Although Harris’ foreign policy experience is limited, during her tenure as vice president she has visited Asia several times. In 2021 she visited Vietnam and Singapore, in 2022 she visited Japan and South Korea and later in the year Thailand and Philippines, and in 2023 she visited Indonesia to attend an ASEAN summit. During Harris’ visit to Japan in 2022, she accused China of “undermining key elements of the international rules-based order” and called China’s behavior in the East China Sea, South China Sea and Taiwan Strait “disturbing.”
Although Harris is not yet an expert on the Indo-Pacific, she has learned a little bit about the region in recent years, and Taiwan should prepare for the possibility that she wins the election.
3. Don’t Twist the Words of U.S. Politicians: Many, or even most, media in Taiwan reported that Trump demanded “protection money” from Taiwan. However, as Taiwan commentator Chang Ching pointed out, in the Bloomberg interview Trump did not say the words “protection money”.
In fact, Trump was simply being consistent with his positions throughout his term as President. Whether North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries, Japan, or South Korea, Trump demanded that these allies of the United States spend more money on their national defense. Trump was correct to do this, and he achieved results. If, in the future, Taiwan wants to avoid similar comments from Trump or other U.S. politicians, what Taiwan needs to do is simple: Taiwan needs to invest in its national defense much more than the current national defense budget.
4. TSMC Shareholders Shouldn’t Overreact: TSMC’s share price fell after the publication of Trump’s interview with Bloomberg in which he said Taiwan “did take about 100% of our chip business” and “Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything”. Trump’s comments, whether as a candidate or as a president, are unrelated to the reasons why TSMC is a great (and profitable) company. Although some are speculating that a Trump Administration 2.0 would cancel the subsidy to be provided by the U.S. Commerce Department under the “Chips Act”, there’s no reason at this stage to believe he would do that.
5. Trump Knows the People Well: The good news in Trump’s interview with Bloomberg is that he said, with regard to Taiwan, “I know the people very well, respect them greatly.” This author was surprised by Trump’s statement that he knows the people of Taiwan very well. Trump has not done business in Taiwan, though he did get to know Terry Gou during the negotiations for Foxconn to build a facility in Wisconsin and through Gou’s visits to the White House.
Ultimately, Taiwan must remain neutral in the U.S. election even if the reality is that the Lai Administration wants a Trump Administration 2.0. Taiwan, just like any other country, should prepare for the possibility that Trump wins, as well as prepare for the possibility Harris wins. Taiwan doesn’t have the political, military or economic “chips” to gamble on U.S. elections. However, this author agrees with Trump, Taiwan should spend more of its “chips” on national defense!