方恩格专栏》与川普政府打交道应避免做的事
图为川普提名的内阁人选。（中时资讯网制作）
川普赢得了最近的选举，并将于2025年1月20日就任成为美国下一任总统。
福斯新闻上周发表一篇题为〈川普内阁友台，向中国发出强烈讯号〉的文章指出，川普任命参议员卢比欧为国务卿是「对中国直言不讳」，如果卢比欧成为国务卿，「对中国来说就是一个问题」。关于驻联合国大使海莉的提名，福斯新闻援引一位专家的话说，海莉将「致力利用美国在整个联合国系统的财政援助，去除中国的恶劣影响。」
公平地说，台湾应该对川普外交政策团队的最初选择感到欣慰，尤其是川普稍早表示台湾应该在国防上投入更多资金或指责台湾窃取美国半导体产业时，台湾感到忧心。然而，基于多种原因，台湾不应对川普的胜利或谁将在川普政府任职反应过度。相反，赖清德政府应该避免采取一些行动，并在与川普政府打交道时保持耐心。
台湾该避免做什么？我想到了几件事。
一、不要相信或雇用「川普身边的窃窃私语者」(Trump Whispers)：台湾政府（以及远景基金会等官办智库）已经向游说者和顾问支付大量资金，以建议台湾如何应对美国政府。可以理解的是，如果共和党控制白宫、参议院和众议院，台湾应该雇用更多的共和党说客而不是民主党说客。不过，台湾要小心，不要雇用「川普私语者」。
这些人号称与白宫有特殊联系，并声称拥有解释川普对特定问题想法的特殊才能。这种人确实存在，而且他们收取非常高的服务费用。不过，台湾与第一个任期的川普政府合作良好，川普的外交政策和国家安全团队将包括许多「抗中保台」的官员。换句话说，川普政府将对台湾非常友好，无需为「川普私语者」支付昂贵的费用。
二、不要急于采购武器军备：近日，有台湾媒体报导称，台湾计划向川普政府提出价值150亿美元的武器购买请求。如此大笔采购的目的之一就是担心川普希望台湾缴交「保护费」。然而，仅仅因为川普在接受采访时所说的一句话就仓促购买武器是非常愚蠢的。
我们知道，如果台湾在没有仔细考虑整个局势的情况下购买武器，会发生什么事。2019年，川普政府批准向台湾出售108辆M1A2T艾布兰坦克。然而，台湾与中国进行坦克战的可能性很低，台湾本来可以把钱花在更适合的武器上。2021年，拜登政府批准向台湾出售40门155毫米M109A6中型自走榴弹砲。然而，有充分的理由说明，台湾使用直升机运输的拖曳式火砲比自走砲会更好。不管怎样，由于生产延迟和其他考虑，这次销售被取消，台湾把钱花在其他武器系统上。
整体而言，除了F-35战斗机等某些武器外，如果台湾是愿意的买家，川普政府也会是愿意的卖家。不过，赖政府没有必要急于提出武器采购请求，任何采购请求都应仔细考虑，以适合台湾的国防需求。
三、台企不宜急于赴美投资：川普执政期间，台企开始扩大对美投资，通常被称为「友岸外包」(friendshoring)，因为川普要求外国企业在美国生产，以及后来川普对中国制造的产品征收额外关税开始的「贸易战」。
台湾最引人注目的投资是鸿海在威斯康辛州的计划。最终，鸿海在威斯康辛州的计划无论是生产量还是雇用人数都未能达到最初的目标，不得不与威斯康辛州政府重新谈判。台湾企业可能对川普领导下的关税增加感到紧张，这是可以理解的。有报导称，川普可能会取消根据《晶片与科学法案》给予台积电的补贴，尽管拜登政府于2024年11月15日与台积电敲定了协议。不过，台湾企业不急于决定扩大对美投资，而应等待川普政府的关税和制造业激励政策公布。
四、不要急于用「坚若磐石」来形容美台关系：蔡英文政府有称美台关系「坚如磐石」的习惯，赖政府也延续了这个习惯。整体而言，拜登政府执政期间两国关系良好，川普政府执政期间关系将更加密切。但一再称两国关系「坚若磐石」并不会让两国关系更加紧密。无论如何，随着美国新政府的上台，也许是时候用一个新的口号来描述两国关系了。
五、在没有评估利益和风险的情况下，不要接受与川普的电话：上个月，笔者在《中国时报》上写了一篇关于赖总统与美国总统当选人通话的好处和风险的文章。发出这样的呼吁有许多充分的理由，因为中国将如何反应是个变数。如果川普愿意接电话，赖清德应该仔细考虑利弊，若仅出于公关目的而打电话，并不能证明这种风险是合理的。
在川普政府第一任期，台湾与美国的双边关系非常好，台湾有充分的理由相信，在川普新政府执政期间，也会出现同样的情况。不过，台湾应该始终优先考虑自己的利益，而不是急于考虑川普政府的利益。川普也会同意每个国家都应该优先考虑自己的利益！
（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席）
Taiwan Should Not Overreact to Trump Victory
By Ross Darrell Feingold
@RossFeingold
Donald Trump won the recent election and on January 20, 2025 will become the next president of the United States.
An article published in Fox News this past week was headlined “Trump cabinet picks delight Taiwan, send strong signal to China”. The article noted that the nominee for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, “is blunt on China” and that if Rubio becomes the Secretary of State, it “is a problem for China”. With regard to the nominee for Ambassador to the United Nations Elise Stefanik, an expert cited by Fox News said that Stefanik will “work toward leveraging American financial assistance across the United Nations system to root out Chinese malign influence".
It’s fair to say that Taiwan should be relieved at the initial selections for Trump’s foreign policy team, especially after earlier concerns in Taiwan when Trump said Taiwan should spend more on its defense or he accused Taiwan of stealing the American semiconductor industry.
However, for several reasons, Taiwan should not overreact to Trump’s victory or who will serve in the Trump Administration. Instead, the President William Lai’s Administration and Taiwan should avoid several actions and be patient in its dealings with the new Trump Administration.
What should Taiwan avoid doing? Several things come to mind.
1. Do not believe, or hire, “Trump Whispers”: The Taiwan government (as well as government run think tanks such as the Prospect Foundation) already pay a lot of money to lobbyists and consultants to advise Taiwan in how to deal with the United States government. Understandably, if the Republicans control the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives, it would be appropriate for Taiwan to hire more Republican lobbyists than Democratic lobbyists.
However, Taiwan needs to be careful not to hire “Trump Whisperers”. These are people who claim to have special connections to the White House, and claim to have a special talent to explain Trump’s thinking on specific issues.
Such persons do in fact exist, and they charge very high fees for their services.
However, Taiwan successfully worked with the first Trump Administration, and Trump’s foreign policy and national security team will include many officials who are “tough on China, protect Taiwan”. In other words, the Trump Administration will be very friendly to Taiwan, and there is no need to pay an expensive fee for “Trump Whisperers”.
2. Do not rush to make weapons purchases: In recent days, there are reports in the Taiwan media that Taiwan plans to submit US$15,000,000,000 worth of weapons purchase requests to the Trump Administration. One purpose of such a large purchase is out of concern that Trump wants Taiwan to pay a “protection fee”.
However, it is very foolish to rush into weapons purchases simply because of something President Trump said in an interview.
We know what happens when Taiwan purchases weapons without carefully considering the entire situation. In 2019, the Trump Administration approved the sale of 108 M1A2T Abrams tanks to Taiwan. However, the likelihood that Taiwan will fight China in a tank battle is low, and Taiwan could have spent the money on weapons better suited for the kind of war that might be fought. In 2021, the Biden Administration approved the sale of 40 155mm M109A6 Medium Self-Propelled Howitzers to Taiwan. However, there are good reasons why Taiwan would be better off with helicopter-transportable, towed artillery, rather than self-propelled artillery. Regardless, due to production delays and other considerations, this sale was cancelled, and Taiwan spent the money on other weapons systems.
In general, other than certain weapons like the F-35 fighter aircraft, if Taiwan is a willing buyer, the Trump Administration will be a willing seller. However, there is no need for the Lai Administration to rush into a request for weapons, and any purchase request should be carefully considered so that it is appropriate for Taiwan’s defense needs.
3. Taiwan companies should not rush into making investments in the United States: During the first Trump Administration, Taiwan companies began to expand investments in the United States, often referred to as “friendshoring”, because Trump demanded that foreign companies manufacture in the United States, and later, because of the “trade war” that began after Trump imposed additional tariffs on products manufactured in China.
The most notable investment from Taiwan was Hon Hai’s project in Wisconsin. Ultimately, Hon Hai’s project in Wisconsin failed to achieve the original goals whether for the amount of goods manufactured or the number of people hired, and had to be renegotiated with the Wisconsin state government.
It is understandable that Taiwan companies might be nervous about increased tariffs under President Trump. There were reports about the possibility that Trump will rescind the subsidy awarded to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company under the “CHIPS and Science Act”, though on November 15, 2024 the Biden Administration finalized the agreement with TSMC.
However, Taiwan companies should not rush into decisions to expand investments in the United States, and instead should wait until the Trump Administration’s policies towards tariffs as well as manufacturing incentives are announced.
4. Do not rush to use the phrase “rock solid” to describe US - Taiwan relations: The government of Tsai Ing-wen had a habit of calling U.S. - Taiwan relations “rock solid”, a habit that the Lai Administration has continued. Generally, relations were good under the Biden Administration, and will be close under the Trump Administration. But repeatedly calling relations “rock solid” does not make the relations closer.
Regardless, with a new United States government, perhaps it’s time for a new slogan to describe relations.
5. Do not accept a phone call with Trump without first assessing the benefits and risks: Last month in the China Times, this author wrote about the benefits and risks of a phone call between President Lai and the winner of the presidential election. There are many good reasons to have such a call, but there also risks because of how China will react. If Trump is willing to have the call, President Lai should carefully consider the benefits and risks. Having the call for only public relations purposes might not justify the risk.
Bilateral relations between Taiwan and the United States were excellent under the first Trump Administration, and Taiwan has good reasons to believe the same will occur under the new Trump Administration. However, Taiwan should always prioritize its own interests and not rush to prioritize the interests of the Trump Administration. Trump would probably agree that each country should prioritize its own interests!