方恩格专栏》就职演说后 赖清德的挑战才开始

中华民国第16任总统、副总统宣誓就职典礼20日举行，新任的赖清德总统（右）宣誓就职，由司法院长许宗力（左）监誓。（台北市摄影记者联谊会提供）

5月20日，赖清德宣誓就任中华民国第16任总统。在就职典礼之前，外界就已经对赖清德的就职演说内容有许多猜测；而在赖总统发表演说后的几天里，台湾及海外的专家们便对他的言论进行了分析，特别是涉及两岸关系的部分。在及格／不及格的评分标准下，赖清德可以得个「及格」的评价；然而，艰难的挑战将持续出现在往后的4年里。

今年5月初，笔者在《中国时报》撰写的文里提到了赖总统就职演说中值得关注的五件事。而现在，就让我们一起来回顾一下这五件事分别是哪些，以及赖总统实际说了什么。

一、务实台独工作者：2017年9月26日，当时还在担任行政院长的赖清德在立法院中自称「务实的台独工作者」。而赖总统在就职演说中，并未重复这个说法。笔者在前文时就有提到，赖清德在担任行政院长时可以轻而易举地说出这句话，但在担任总统时重申，就变得困难许多。

至于在就职演说里，与中国议题相关讨论的最大重点究竟为何，不同专家持有不同看法。笔者注意到，赖总统曾说过他将秉持前总统蔡英文在2021年国庆演说中所提出的「四个坚持」。然而，赖总统在就职演说中并未列举这「四个坚持」的具体内容是什么。许多有观看或阅读赖总统就职演说的人，是否还记得蔡英文总统所谓的「四个坚持」是什么呢？它们是：坚持自由民主的宪政体制、坚持中华民国与中华人民共和国互不隶属、坚持主权不容侵犯并吞，以及坚持中华民国台湾的前途必须要遵循全体台湾人民的意志。除了「中华民国与中华人民共和国互不隶属」之外，蔡总统在过去几年中很少提及其他三个坚持。

二、称呼中国的方式：笔者曾预言赖清德将会在他的就职演说中多次提及「中国」，而事实也的确如此。赖总统在演讲中提到「中国」7次，并以其官方名称「中华人民共和国」来称呼中国大陆。赖总统并未使用「对岸」或「大陆地区」等字眼来描述。值得注意的是，赖清德完全没有提到他将会依据《两岸人民关系条例》来处理与两岸事务，尽管蔡英文在她2016年的就职演说中曾承诺「新政府会依据《中华民国宪法》、《两岸人民关系条例》及其他相关法律，处理两岸事务」。无独有偶，赖总统也使用了「主权」这个词7次。或许在未来几个月乃至数年里，赖总统将反复强调「主权」，以取代他先前作为一名务实台独工作者的说法。

三、对中华民国的提及：笔者曾预期赖总统会在他的演说中称呼国家为「中华民国」1、2次，例如，当他在演说一开始指出自己已经宣誓就任中华民国总统时，或是在他承诺遵守《中华民国宪法》时。事实上，赖总统共称呼国家为「中华民国」9次。此外，笔者也曾预期赖总统称呼国家为「台湾」的次数将会远多于「中华民国」的次数，事实的确如此。赖总统在他的就职演说的中文版本里共提到了「台湾」87次，而在英文版本中提到了105次。

四、经济：蔡英文总统在2016年的就职演说中，很大一部分都是在谈论经济政策。蔡英文总统呼吁了「经济结构的转型」。蔡英文还表示台湾将争取成为区域贸易协定《跨太平洋伙伴关系协议》（TPP）和《区域全面经济伙伴协定》（RCEP）的会员国。赖总统也提到，「台湾已经申请加入《跨太平洋伙伴全面进展协定》（CPTPP），我们会积极争取加入区域经济整合。」除此之外，赖总统提到半导体4次，人工智慧2次。赖总统还表示，「台湾」是「全球民主供应链」的关键。这些声明也许是在针对美国政府，因为美国越来越关注半导体和技术供应链。

赖总统总共提到了「经济」10次，但这些国内政策议题的部分在就职演说中显得有些仓促。赖总统也提及了许多关乎公众的经济和社会政策议题，尽管他并没有提出具体的政策建议。这些议题包括「更好的薪资环境」、「治安更好」、「打击黑金、枪、毒和诈骗」、「供电稳定」、「第二次能源转型」，保证「只要政府在，劳保绝对不会倒」，承诺「打造符合人本的交通环境」，以及「帮助家庭照顾者减轻负担，以及协助产业改善缺工的困境」。最后，赖总统还表示，「我们必须坚定地落实2050净零转型」，并承诺「协助中小企业升级转型」。或许当赖总统需要出席立法院并发表国情报告时，可以在那里提出具体的经济和能源政策。

五、与在野党的关系：在就职典礼前，笔者曾推测赖总统是否会提到他所属的民进党在立法院是处于少数地位的这个事实。当时，我们还无法预想5月17日在立法院会发生一场包括不同政党立委间的激烈冲突。在这方面，赖总统表示「多数尊重少数，少数服从多数，才能避免冲突，维持社会的安定和谐。」我们不应指望立委们会遵循赖总统的期望。换句话说，在未来的4年里，比起和谐的关系，预期立法院与总统府及行政院之间的关系将会是更多的不和谐。

总而言之，赖总统的就职演说是一项艰难的任务。他必须避免触及拜登政府所设下的任何「红线」，尤其是不要重复他是「务实的台独工作者」这个说法。同时，他还必须对台湾的国际地位发表一些言论，以满足40%投票给他的选民。此外，他还必须讨论除了两岸关系以外的其他议题，就如同他试图提及许多经济和社会政策议题。

不幸的是，由于伊朗总统在就职演说的前一天在直升机失事中罹难，以至于国际媒体对台湾新总统的关注减少，且中国大陆随之而来的军事演习也将导致赖总统的就职演说在台湾公众的记忆里被迅速淡忘。尽管如此，赖清德总统的就职演说仍然拿到一个及格分。在未来4年，执政台湾将会带给他更艰难的任务！

（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席，许淳恩翻译）

原文

Grading President Lai's Inaugural Address

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

@RossFeingold

On May 20th, William Lai was inaugurated as the Republic of China’s 16th-term President. Prior to the inauguration there was much speculation as to what Lai would say in his inaugural address, and in the days after President Lai’s inaugural address experts in Taiwan as well as overseas have analyzed what President Lai said, especially with regard to Taiwan’s relationship with Mainland China.

On a pass/fail grading scale, President Lai certainly deserves a “pass”; the difficult challenges will be subsequent to the inaugural address and last four years.

In early May, this author wrote in this newspaper about five things to watch for in President Lai’s inaugural address. Let’s review those five versus what Lai actually said.

1. Practical Worker for Taiwan Independence: On September 26, 2017 in the Legislative Yuan when he was Premier, President Lai described himself as a “practical worker for Taiwan independence”. President Lai did not repeat this statement in his inaugural address. This author wrote in early May that it is easy for Lai to say this when he was Premier, but more difficult to say it when he is President.

Different experts have different opinions about which was the most important parts of the China related discussion in the inaugural address. This author noted that President Lai said he would adhere to the “Four Commitments” enunciated by former President Tsai Ing-wen in her 2021 National Day address. However, President Lai didn’t list the “Four Commitments”. Do many people who watched or read President Lai’s inaugural address remember what President Tsai’s “Four Commitments” are? They are enduring commitment to a free and democratic constitutional system, commitment that the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China should not be subordinate to each other, commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon Taiwan’s sovereignty, and commitment that the future of the Republic of China (Taiwan) must be decided in accordance with the will of the Taiwanese people.

Even this author had to re-read former President Tsai’s 2021 National Day address to refresh his memory what the Four Commitments are, especially as, other than the “Republic of China and the People's Republic of China should not be subordinate to each”, President Tsai rarely mentioned the other three commitments over the past few years.

2. References to China: This author expected Lai would refer to “China” throughout his inaugural address, and President Lai was consistent with this prediction. President Lai referred to the mainland as “China” seven times, and, referred one time to the mainland by its official name, the People’s Republic of China. Lai did not use descriptions such as “the other side” (对岸) or “mainland area” (大陆地区). Notably, President Lai did not mention even one time that he would conduct relations with China in accordance with the Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area. Former President Tsai, in her 2016 inaugural address, had pledged that the “The new government will conduct cross-Strait affairs in accordance with the Republic of China Constitution, the Act Governing Relations Between the People of Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area, and other relevant legislation”.

Coincidentally, Lai also used seven times the word sovereignty (主权). Perhaps in the coming months and years, Lai will repeatedly emphasize “sovereignty” as a replacement for his earlier statement to be a practical worker for Taiwan’s independence.

3. References to the Republic of China: This author expected President Lai to refer to the Republic of China once or twice, such as the beginning of his address when he notes that he has taken the oath of office as the Republic of China president, or, when he pledges to uphold the Republic of China Constitution. In fact, President Lai referred to the Republic of China twelve times. This author expected President Lai to refer to Taiwan many more times than he refers to the Republic of China, and President Lai certainly did this. Including the paragraph headings, President Lai referred to Taiwan eighty-seven times in the Mandarin version of his inaugural address and one hundred and five times in the English version.

4. Economy: A large portion of President Tsai’s 2016 inaugural address was devoted to talking about the economy. President Tsai called for “Transforming Economic Structures”. Tsai also said Taiwan would pursue membership in the regional trade agreements the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. President Lai also noted that “Taiwan has officially applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and we will continue to engage actively in regional economic integration.” President Lai referred to semiconductors four times, and artificial intelligence two times. President Lai also said that “We are a key player in supply chains for global democracies”. Perhaps these statements were meant for the United States government, which is increasingly concerned about semiconductors and technology supply chains.

President Lai mentioned “economy” ten times, but these domestic policy issues parts of the inaugural came across as somewhat rushed. President Lai referred to many economic and social policy issues that are important to the public, though he did not offer specific policy suggestions. These items included an "even better wage environment", "more effective public safety" a "crack down on corruption and organized crime, guns, drugs, and fraud", a "stable supply of electricity", a “second energy transition", a pledge that "labor insurance will not fail under our government", a pledge to "create a human-friendly transportation environment", and a pledge to "help lighten the load for family caregivers and work to solve the labor shortage issue". President Lai also said “we must be resolved in our transition to net-zero emissions by the year 2050”, and he pledged to “assist small- and medium-sized enterprises as they upgrade and transform”.

Perhaps President Lai will share specific policies when, and if, he is required to appear before the Legislative Yuan to deliver a state of the nation address.

5. Relationship With the Opposition: Prior to the inauguration this author speculated as to whether or not Lai will refer to the reality that his Democratic Progressive Party is in the Legislative Yuan minority. Of course, at the time, we could not imagine the extraordinary events on May 17 in the Legislative Yuan, which included fighting between legislators of different parties. In this regard, President Lai said that “The majority should respect the minority, while the minority accepts majority rule. Only then can we avoid conflict and maintain a stable and harmonious society”. We should not expect legislators to adhere to President Lai’s hopes. In other words, for the next four years we should expect that Legislative Yuan relations with the Presidential Office and Executive Yuan will be more disharmony and not much harmony.

In conclusion, President Lai had a difficult task in his inaugural address. He had to avoid any “red lines” imposed by the Biden Administration, most notably not to repeat he is a practical worker for Taiwan independence. At the same, he had to say something about Taiwan’s status to satisfy the 40% of voters who voted for him. He also had to discuss things other than cross-strait relations, which he tried to do when he mentioned many economic and social policy issues.

Unfortunately for President Lai, the death of Iran’s president in a helicopter crash one day prior to the inaugural address resulted in less international media attention to Taiwan’s new president, and the mainland’s subsequent military exercises will cause memories of President Lai’s inaugural address to quickly fade among the public in Taiwan.

Regardless, President Lai’s inaugural address deserves a passing grade. Governing Taiwan for the next four years will be a more difficult assignment!