时论广场》赖清德就职演说 值得关注的五件事（方恩格）

2024年，全球各地将有许多地方举行大选，然而，却很少有一位新领导人像赖清德一样受到如此密切的关注，并在地缘政治中扮演着重要角色。（资料照，郭吉铨摄）

5月20日，赖清德将上任中华民国第16任总统。未来几天将会有许多关于赖清德就职演说内容的猜测，特别是他对两岸政策的看法。在就职演说后，这些内容不仅仅会被在台湾的「专家们」分析，在华盛顿特区和其他地方同样也不例外。

就如同每一位民选的领导人一样，赖清德最希望的是能在2028年赢得连任。因此，把他的就职演说与2016年5月20日蔡英文总统的首次就职演说进行相比的话，较为贴切。虽然蔡英文总统于2020年5月20日的第二次就职演说也可以作为比较的参考，但是由于当时是处于全球疫情肆虐的特殊情况，所以不太能完全相比。

以下是笔者将会在赖清德就职演说中关注的五件事：

一、务实台独工作者：2017年9月26日，当时赖清德还在担任行政院长时，他将自己描述为「务实的台独工作者」。赖清德总统会在就职演说中重申一次吗？毕竟，在涉及台湾与中国之间的关系时，无论他在总统竞选期间内对两岸关系做了什么其他的评论，这个声明都还一直是赖清德最有标志性的名言之一。

当然，在担任行政院长时，赖清德可以轻而易举地说出这句话，但当他担任总统时，这句话的份量就变更重了。因此，赖清德不太可能会重申他这句定义台湾地位的名言。面对来自美国的压力，以及中国可能会如何反应的担忧，将会使得赖清德难以重复这一句话。

二、称呼中国的方式：由于赖清德无法重申他是一位「务实的台独工作者」，他将不得不找到其他的方式来说明中国和台湾是两个互不隶属的独立国家。例如，「对岸」或「大陆地区」等称呼方式无法强调两岸互不隶属。

在蔡英文2020年的就职演说中，她在中文版本里称中国为「对岸」，但英文版本里却是将其翻译为「中国」；而这也是她演讲中唯一一次直接提到中国。对此，赖清德总统最简单的解决方法，就是在演说中统一称呼为「中国」。

三、对中华民国的提及：每当总统在重大节日发表重要演说，如元旦或国庆日时，记者和评论家们都会去注意总统一共称呼国家的正式名称「中华民国」，或是「台湾」各几次。例如，在蔡英文总统去年10月的最后一次国庆日演讲中，媒体报导她总共提到「中华民国」5次、「台湾」37次。赖清德可能只会有1、2次是称国家为「中华民国」，例如，当他在演说一开始指出自己已经宣誓就任中华民国总统时，或是在他承诺遵守中华民国宪法时。但是，不出意外的话，比起称呼我国为「中华民国」的次数，他可能会提到更多次的「台湾」。

四、经济：蔡英文总统在2016年的就职演说中，很大一部分都是在谈论经济政策。蔡英文总统呼吁了「经济结构的转型」。在许多方面，她都实现了这样的转型，包括了一些著名的政策口号像是「前瞻基础建设计划」、「循环经济」和「5+2产业创新计划」。

在2016年的就职演说中，蔡英文总统还表示台湾将争取成为区域贸易协定《跨太平洋伙伴全面进步协定》（CPTPP）和《区域全面经济伙伴协定》（RCEP）的会员国。尽管台湾最终在2021年申请加入了前身为TPP的后继协定CPTPP，但不确定台湾最终是否会被邀请加入成为会员国。此外，中国已经是RCEP的成员，因此台湾成功加入的可能性很小。或许，赖清德不要提到台湾加入这两个贸易协定的愿景会比较好。

五、与在野党的关系：与前两任总统蔡英文和马英九不同，赖清德未在立法院享有多数席次。自从今年2月新一届的立法院开议以来，已经有许多情况显示，由国民党占有多数席次的立法院将会和行政院或总统府之间产生不少摩擦。赖清德会提到这个问题吗？还是他会提出与占有多数席次的其他政党一起合作的建议？

除了立法以外，占有立院多数席次的政党也渴望监督赖政府；而赖清德与在野党之间要关注的点还包括了他从蔡英文总统继承的转型正义问题。事实上，蔡总统在2016年的就职演说中将一部分的时间用于谈论这个议题，而她确实在这方面取得了不错的成就。首先，立法院于2016年7月25日通过了《政党及其附随组织不当取得财产处理条例》。随后，不当党产处理委员会也冻结了许多国民党底下的资产，使他们无法轻易重新取回。

另外，在赖清德的演说中还有其他要关注的事项。举例而言，赖清德会和过去台湾政府的作法一样，提及台湾最亲密的盟友美国，并表示台美关系「坚如磐石」吗？还是也和之前的政府一样，提及「民主」与「专制」间的对抗？他是否会决定他的政府将继续实行新南向政策？而他的演说又会有多少时间是要用来讨论重要的国内社会议题，如长照政策、高房价和低薪问题？

2024年，全球各地将有许多地方举行大选，而其中的一些国家也将会迎来新的领导人。然而，却很少有一位新领导人像赖清德一样受到如此密切的关注，并在地缘政治中扮演着重要角色。祝他好运！（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席，许淳恩翻译）

William Lai’s Inaugural Address: Five Things To Watch

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

@RossFeingold

On May 20th, William Lai will be inaugurated as the Republic of China’s 16th-term President. In the coming days there will be much speculation as to what Lai will say, especially about his China policy. After Lai delivers the inauguration address, it will be analyzed by “experts” not only in Taiwan, but in Washington DC and elsewhere.

Like every democratically elected leader in his first term, what Lai wants most of all is to win a second term in 2028. Thus, it’s more on point to compare his inauguration address to the first inaugural address of President Tsai Ing-wen delivered on May 20, 2016. President Tsai’s second inaugural address on May 20, 2020 is also useful as a comparison, though it was delivered under the unique circumstances of the global pandemic.

Here are five things this author will be watching for in Lai’s inauguration address:

1. Practical Worker for Taiwan Independence: On September 26, 2017 in the Legislative Yuan when he was Premier, Lai described himself as a “practical worker for Taiwan independence”. Will President Lai repeat the statement in his inaugural address? After all, when it comes to Taiwan’s relationship with China, this one statement is Lai’s most famous comment on the topic, regardless of what he said about Taiwan-China relations during the presidential campaign.

Of course, it is easy for Lai to say this when was Premier, and more difficult to say it when he is President. Thus, Lai is unlikely to repeat his most well-known comment on Taiwan’s status. Pressure from the United States, and concern about how China might react, makes it impossible for Lai to repeat it.

2. References to China: As Lai cannot repeat that he is a “practical worker for Taiwan independence”, he will have to find other ways to describe China and Taiwan as two separate countries who don’t have sovereignty over the other. Descriptions such as “the other side” (对岸) or “mainland area” (大陆地区), don’t achieve the goal of emphasizing that each side doesn’t have sovereignty over the other.

In President Tsai’s 2020 inaugural address, she referred in Mandarin to the other side of the strait (对岸), but the English version translates it as “China”. This was the only direct reference in her address to China. The simple solution will be for Lai to refer to “China” throughout his address.

3. References to the Republic of China: Whenever the president makes an important address such as on New Years Day or National Day, reporters and commentators will note how many times the president refers to the country by its formal name, the Republic of China, versus how many times the president refers to the country as “Taiwan”. For example, in President Tsai’s final National Day address last October, media reported that she referred to the Republic of China five times, and to Taiwan thirty seven times. Lai will probably refer to the Republic of China once or twice, such as the beginning of his address when he notes that he has taken the oath of office as the Republic of China president, or, when he pledges to uphold the Republic of China Constitution. However, he is likely to refer to Taiwan many more times than he refers to the Republic of China, which will come as no surprise.

4. Economy: A large portion of President Tsai’s 2016 inaugural address was devoted to talking about the economy. President Tsai called for “Transforming Economic Structures”. In many ways President Tsai achieved such a transformation. Tsai’s economic policies include “buzz words” like Forward-looking Infrastructure Development Program, circular economy, and 5+2 innovative industries.

In her 2016 inaugural address Tsai also said Taiwan would pursue membership in the regional trade agreements the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Although Taiwan eventually applied in 2021 to join the TPP’s successor, the CPTPP, there’s no certainty Taiwan will ever be invited into the CPTPP, and with China a member of the RCEP, there is little likelihood that Taiwan can join. Perhaps it’s best for Lai that he not mention Taiwan’s hopes to join these two trade agreements.

5. Relationship With the Opposition: Unlike his two immediate predecessors, Tsai Ing-wen and Ma Ying-jeou, La will not enjoy a majority in the Legislative Yuan. In the few months since the new Legislative Yuan took office this past February, there are already numerous situations that show how difficult relations will be between the Legislative Yuan majority from the Chinese Nationalist Party, and the Executive Yuan or Presidential Office. Will Lai refer to this situation, and will he offer to work with the Legislative Yuan majority from a different political party?

In addition to lawmaking, and the Legislative Yuan majority’s desire to monitor the Lai government, Lai’s relations with the opposition will also include the issue of transitional justice that Lai inherits from President Tsai. In fact, President Tsai devoted a portion of her 2016 inaugural address to this topic, and she certainly achieved much in this regard, starting with the Act Governing the Settlement of Ill-gotten Properties by Political Parties and Their Affiliate Organizations that the Legislative Yuan passed into law on July 25, 2016, only two months after Tsai took office. Subsequently the Ill-Gotten Party Assets Settlement Committee froze many of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s assets, a situation the Chinese Nationalist Party has failed to recover from.

Separately, there are other things to watch in Lai’s address. Will Lai refer to Taiwan’s closest ally, the United States, and say that relations are “rock solid” as the Taiwan government often does? Will Lai refer to “democracy” versus “autocracy” as the Taiwan government also often does? Will Lai confirm that his government will continue the New Southbound Policy? How much of his address will be devoted to important domestic social issues such as elder care, housing costs, and low salaries?

In 2024 there is a large number of elections around the world. Some countries will have new leaders taking over. Few new leaders will be as closely watched, or have a vital role in geopolitics, as Lai. Good luck to him!