时论广场》蔡总统520前后待办的清单（方恩格）

蔡英文总统即将迎来卸任的日子，希望蔡英文和赖清德都能有足够的智慧来确保交接顺利，而不受他们或他们派系之间任何紧张局势的影响。(资料照片)

蔡英文总统即将迎来卸任的日子。不幸的是，有关403花莲大地震的事件将会在她最后几周的任期内占据公共政策讨论的版面。因此，比起一般总统的正常卸任情况，她更可能会在做出某些决定时备受限制。在她任期仅剩的日子里，以下是应该出现在蔡总统「待办」清单上的一些事项。

第一，特赦：中华民国宪法第四十条「总统依法行使大赦，特赦，减刑及复权之权。」在民主社会中，即将卸任的总统通常会行使这一权力以特赦对应人士。例如，前美国总统川普在其任期的最后几天里特赦了许多人，包括他那些因罪行而被判有罪的朋友。

而是否要特赦曾因犯罪入狱的前总统陈水扁，将会是蔡总统最难以决定的问题。考虑到陈水扁罪行的严重性，特赦他将是一个可怕的错误选择。对民进党支持者来说，特赦陈水扁无疑会是一个很了不起的政绩。但无论如何，由于先前陈水扁在打破所谓「保外就医」期间的限制时，法务部和矫正署都没有采取任何强制执行的手段，所以这件事早就已经成为一个笑话了。因此，对陈水扁的特赦将只是用来确认他当初并未被执行的条件已不复存在。

第二，给亲蔡人士工作：台湾拥有大量的国营事业、民营之国营事业，以及政府掌握的智库。在许多民主国家里，即将卸任的总统会提供那些值得的支持者在这些组织中工作的机会来奖励他们。在过去的八年里，民进党已经巧妙地提供具有「正确」政治关系的人们这样的机会。蔡总统会在5月20日之前试图实施最后一轮这种类型的任命吗？毕竟，由于即将上任的总统赖清德也是民进党的一员，因此若是他在任内反对或是取消提供这些工作机会给党内「内部人士」会显得有点奇怪。

第三，颁奖：总统有权对有勋劳于国家或社会的人士，包括公民和外国人，颁发国家奖项。事实上，蔡总统已经授予许多外国人中华民国的各种勋章，例如授予美国前国务卿麦克·庞培欧特种大绶景星勋章。有鉴于许多外宾即将前来台湾参加赖清德的就职典礼，这会是蔡总统向台湾的「外国朋友们」颁发这些奖项的绝佳机会。

第四，卸任演说：蔡总统应该要向台湾民众和国际社会发表卸任演说吗？在民主国家中，这也是即将卸任的国家元首常做的事情。此类演说内容可以涉及她在国内外政策方面的重大成就，包括她在应对潜在的中国军事冲突时，为台湾所做的努力。有人可能认为，在403花莲大地震后不久进行这样的演说稍嫌不妥。然而，蔡总统可能会好好利用这个机会来细属她的政绩。

第五，对赖总统的建议：在美国，即将卸任的总统会在白宫椭圆办公室的桌子上留下一封信给即将上任的总统。蔡总统和赖副总统在过去四年里都有定期互动，所以也许蔡英文总统不太必要再特别给赖清德一封信。但无论是何种形式，蔡总统都应该毫不犹豫地向赖总统提供「最后」的忠告。

至于蔡总统卸任后的计划，以下几件事情也应该是她「待办」清单上的优先考虑事项。尽管蔡总统值得踏上一段脱离公众视野的长假，但政治人物有时就是会忍不住想要参与一点公共政策的讨论，像是前总统陈水扁和马英九就是两个在任期结束后仍试图保持与公共政策之间联系的例子。蔡总统卸任后的「待办事项」清单可能会包括：

第一，海外访问：世界各地会有许多议员和智库等待蔡英文的访问、演讲和接受奖项。蔡英文无疑可以作为台湾的无任所大使。尽管公众通常不了解无任期大使的工作内容，而且他们的成就也相对有限，但台湾已经有过先例，笔者预计赖政府将根据《国家机密保护法》批准蔡总统的海外访问申请；因为即使在没有其他原因的影响下，这样做也可以借由让蔡英文离开台湾，而使赖清德可以不用一直待在蔡英文的影子下运作。

第二，党内事务 /「英系」：蔡英文是否打算在民进党中保留一个「英系」？她是否想成为幕后的「造王者」并在党内政治中发挥影响力？看在赖清德的份上，希望蔡英文并没有这样的计划，就如同前两任总统陈水扁和马英九一样，他们都并未在两届任期结束后，于其属政党中担任类似角色。但如果她日后真的在民进党内运作一个「英系」，我们也不应该感到太意外。

第三，智库：蔡英文是否会重振她的智库「小英教育基金会」？重新启动一个智库的原因之一是，它为蔡英文提供了一个平台，使她得以继续分享她对公共政策议题的看法，无论是国内政策、外交政策，或是两岸政策。如果她打算要让她的智库再度活跃起来，那么它可能会支持赖政府的政策，但也不排除有时会批评政策的可能性。

第四，出书：无论是在台湾还是其他国家，前任国家领导者写一本关于他们在任期间经历的书是很常见的现象。蔡英文总统会写一本这种书吗？如果会的话，台湾的读者会想要买来看吗？她会在书里分享在任期内公众还不知道的细节吗？又或是，她会写她与副总统赖清德之间的关系吗？

第五，接见来访的外国政要：来访台湾的外国政要，如议员和智库学者，都会希望与前总统蔡英文会面。一般而言，他们的行程安排会交由外交部负责。可以理解的是，赖政府可能不会希望蔡英文与来访的外国政要会面，因为她有可能对访客们说出一些与赖政府政策不一致的事。话虽如此，若是不让来访的外国政要与蔡英文会面，对访客来说可能会有些失礼；尤其是当这些人是在她八年任期内经悱见面的政要时。因此，这对赖政府来说会是一个很艰难的决定。

总而言之，这是民进党首次由一位连任两届的总统将权力移交给同样来自民进党的继任者。让我们一起希望蔡英文和赖清德都能有足够的智慧来确保交接顺利，而不受他们或他们派系之间任何紧张局势的影响。

（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席，许淳恩翻译）

Tsai Ing-wen's Final Month and Post Presidency

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

@RossFeingold

President Tsai Ing-wen has reached the final weeks of her presidency. Unfortunately for President Tsai, the earthquake off of Hualien on April 3 will dominate public policy discussions in these final weeks, and might limit her ability to make certain decisions that one would normally expect an outgoing president to make. In the remaining days of her presidency, these are some of the things that should be on President Tsai's "to do" list.

1. Pardons: Article 40 of the Republic of China Constitution grants the president the "power of granting amnesties, pardons, remission of sentences and restitution of civil rights". It is common in democratic societies for an outgoing president to exercise this power to deserving persons. President Donald Trump in his final days in office issued a large number of pardons, including to friends of his who had been convicted of crimes.

A pardon for convicted criminal and former President Chen Shui-bian would be the most difficult pardon for Tsai to decide. Given the severity of Chen's crimes, it would be a terrible mistake to pardon him. A pardon for Chen would certainly strengthen Tsai's legacy with Democratic Progressive Party supporters. Regardless, Chen's so-called "medical parole" has long since become a joke, with neither the Ministry of Justice nor Agency of Corrections enforcing the conditions under which Chen was paroled from prison. Thus, a pardon for Chen would simply confirm that the unenforced conditions of Chen's release no longer exist.

2. Jobs for Supporters: Taiwan has a large number of state-owned companies, state controlled companies, and government controlled think tanks. In many democracies, an outgoing president will reward deserving supporters with jobs at such organizations. Over the past eight years, the Democratic Progressive Party has expertly given such opportunities to persons with the "right" political connections. Will Tsai try to implement a final round of such appointments before May 20? After all, incoming President Lai Ching-te is also from the Democratic Progressive Party, and it would be odd for him to object to, or cancel, giving such jobs to party "insiders".

3. Awards: The President has the authority to issue state awards to deserving persons, both citizens as well as foreigners. In fact, President Tsai has awarded many foreigners with the various orders of the Republic of China, such as awarding Mike Pompeo the Order of Brilliant Star with Special Grand Cordon. With foreign guests coming to Taiwan for Lai Ching-te's inauguration, it is a perfect opportunity for President Tsai to issue such awards to "foreign friends" of Taiwan.

4. Farewell Address: Should President Tsai deliver a farewell address to the people of Taiwan and the international community? This is also common in democracies for an outgoing head of state to do. The content of such address could include her notable domestic and foreign policy achievements, including what she did to prepare Taiwan for a potential military conflict with China. Some might consider such an address, shortly after the Hualien earthquake on April 3rd, to be inappropriate. But President Tsai might as well make use of this opportunity to begin to shape what her legacy will be.

5. Advice to President Lai: In the United States, there is a custom for the outgoing president to leave a letter in the Oval Office desk for the incoming president. President Tsai and Vice President Lai have interacted on a regular basis over the past four years, so perhaps it is unnecessary for President Tsai to leave a letter for Lai. Whatever format it takes, President Tsai should not be shy about providing "last minute" advice to Lai.

As for Tsai's post-presidency, several things should also be at the top of her "to do" list. Although Tsai deserves a long vacation from public life, politicians sometimes find it irresistible to try and stay relevant to public policy discussions, and former presidents Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou are two examples of former presidents did try to stay relevant after their terms concluded. Tsai's post-presidency "to do" list might include:

1. Overseas Travel: There will be high demand from parliamentarians and think tanks around the world for Tsai to visit, deliver speeches, and accept awards. Tsai can certainly function as an ambassador-at-large for Taiwan. Taiwan already has ambassadors-at-large, even though the public is generally unaware of what they do and their achievements are somewhat limited. This author expects the Lai Administration to approve Tsai's applications for overseas travel pursuant to its discretionary authority under the Classified National Security Information Protection Act, if for no other reason than it takes Tsai out of Taiwan so that Lai won't be operating in Tsai's shadow all the time.

2. Party Affairs / "Tsai Faction": Does Tsai plan to maintain a "Tsai Faction" in the Democratic Progressive Party? Does she want to be a behind the scenes "kingmaker" in party politics? For Lai's sake, one hopes that Tsai has no such plans, and her recent predecessors Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou, did not have such a role in their political parties after their two terms in office concluded. But we shouldn't be surprised if she does operate a "Tsai faction" within the Democratic Progressive Party.

3. Think Tank. Will Tsai re-invigorate her think tank "Thinking Taiwan"? One reason to re-start a think tank would be that it provides a platform for Tsai to continue to share her views on public policy issues, whether domestic policy, foreign policy, or China policy. If she does plan for her think tank to be active, it will probably support Lai Administration policies, but at times might also be a critic.

4. Write a Book: It is common in Taiwan (as well as other countries) for former leaders to write a book about their experiences in office. Will Tsai write such a book, and if so, will readers in Taiwan want to purchase it? Will she share any details about her presidency that the public doesn't already know? And what would she write about her relationship with her Vice President, William Lai?

5. Meet Visiting Foreign Dignitaries: Foreign dignitaries such as members of parliaments and think tank scholars who visit Taiwan will want to meet former President Tsai. Typically, their itinerary is arranged by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Understandably, the Lai Administration might not want Tsai to meet visiting foreign dignitaries because it has the risk that she tells the visitors things that are inconsistent with Lai Administration policy. Not letting visiting foreign dignitaries meet with Tsai might be rude to the visitors, especially if they frequently met with her during her eight years as president. This will be a tough decision for the Lai Administration.

In conclusion, this is the first time that a two term Democratic Progressive Party president hands off power to a successor who is also from the Democratic Progressive Party president. Let's hope that both Tsai and Lai have the wisdom to ensure this is a smooth process without any tensions between them or their factions.