时论广场》这样的外交成绩单能换取选票？（方恩格 Ross Darrell Feingold）

总统府提供

10月、11月，台湾紧锣密鼓地进行了一连串的外交活动。相较之下，11月26日即将登场的地方选举势头却是望尘莫及。

看似很热闹，史瓦帝尼、诺鲁、帛琉、圣克里斯多福等友邦国家元首来台造访蔡总统，而赖清德副总统也亲自去了一趟帛琉。很明显，与其在造势场合帮忙拉票，民进党高层似乎更是重视拚外交。

英国国贸部国务大臣韩斯来台促进双边贸易谈判；立陶宛在台北开设了贸易办事处；美国也与台湾举行了「21世纪贸易倡议」的首度面谈。另外也有加拿大、德国、印度、日本、乌克兰，以及美国等国会议员团造访台湾。此外，台湾也主办了好几个国际会议，像是包括玉山论坛、世界民主运动全球大会、中共权力变迁及治理趋势国际研讨会、奥斯陆自由论坛、台美日国会议员战略论坛等。

这一连串看似来势汹汹的外交活动，让民进党得以宣传自己交出了优异的外交成绩单，进而拉擡他们在地方选举的士气。但在笔者看来，很可惜这一连串外交活动是重量不重质。

就来台的层级而言，英国国务大臣（类似于台湾副部长）访台早有先例。如2015年送柯文哲一只精美怀表却被称为破铜烂铁的英国交通部国务大臣也来过台湾。关于英国，更值得台湾所费心的，应该是前首相强森原本希望能在印太地区增加英国军事参与度的企图，很可能会被新任首相苏纳克出于预算考量而停止进展。苏纳克最近表态：英国「不排除对台湾输送武器的可能性」，但这与「确实向台湾出售武器」是两码事。另一方面，台湾的新闻也报导了最近英国拒绝发出给台湾国安局在元首维安狙击枪采购案的两支步枪出口许可证，英国不给台湾这两支步枪，台湾只好转向美国购买。

另外放眼最近在台北举行了各式各样「会议」、「对话」、「论坛」，对台湾政府来说看似可以替外交成绩单加分，很可惜几乎没有引起什么特别的外国媒体关注。玉山论坛来宾前澳洲外交部长毕绍普、前纽西兰副总理彼特斯、前泰国副总理邦特和世界民主运动全球大会来宾诺贝尔和平奖得主瑞萨，都常针对现任者吐槽。邀请他们来台湾不一定会替台湾在外交上加什么分。而原本万众瞩目的人权倡议篮球员坎特原订来台参加奥斯陆自由论坛，但后来并没有现身。

台湾议题或许在美国和日本较能受到当地官员的重视，但东协国家则大多都会保持距离。如新加坡现任国务资政兼国家安全统筹部长张志贤以及新加坡副总理（未来的总理接班人）黄循财最近发表的声明中，特别说出他们认为台湾的情况与他们支持乌克兰的主权无法并论，他们更是重申新加坡会持续在美中争端之间保持中立态度。前马来西亚首相马哈迪也批评美国众议院议长裴洛西访台一事造成了台海冲突升温，更称之为「挑衅的举动」。

而过去这两个月，台湾国际场合，如国际刑警组织大会（尽管东道主国印度曾声明希望与台湾建立更密切的双边关系，但似乎对台湾为受邀保持缄默），白宫主办的第二届反勒索软体倡议、联合国第27届气候峰会 （COP 27）、金边东亚峰会和在峇里岛举行的G20会议，台湾都被拒为门外。 11月17日，美国前总统欧巴马举办了民主论坛，台湾亦未受邀，而外交部只能说「我国与美国各NGO及专业机构都保持友好连系，若有具体结果，相关单位会适时说明」。台湾政府只好在这些国际场合之间想办法发声，像是在会议进行的会场旁边另开一个「场边会议」来为自己争一口气。也有不少台湾的官员向海外媒体投书，高喊让台湾加入、自我宣传台湾的相关价值，但很遗憾都于事无补。

好事多磨的「立陶宛驻台北办事处」在相对应的「驻立陶宛台湾代表处」设立后一年才得以开设，但不久前立陶宛官方媒体以负面口吻指出台湾迟迟未兑现对立陶宛所承诺的2亿美元投资计划，于是台湾政府又立刻宣布了对于立陶宛科技公司投下了首笔的小型投资案。

「台美21世纪贸易倡议」与其说是台美互惠的讨论，更不如说是美国对台湾所提出的单向倡议，对比2020年的「经济繁荣伙伴对话」，「台美21世纪贸易倡议进行」可说是换了个新名字重新上阵，内容了无新意，更别说达成什么突破性的发展。

放眼欧洲，欧盟近期开始缓颊对中关系。德国总理萧兹访问了中国；欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表波瑞尔则是在一场公开谈话中暗指「某人的一趟个人旅行导致台海局势更加紧张」，后来台湾外交部十分罕见地反驳并谴责了他的说法。

这次的美国期中选举，多数亲台湾的国会议员都继续连任。然而在这之中，长期对台友好的俄亥俄州共和党议员夏波以及对台湾问题直言不讳的维吉尼亚州民主党议员路里亚却都落马未当选。而在习近平与拜登会晤之后，拜登总统强调美国反对任何一方改变现状，这也是同时要提醒台湾政府，拜登并未收回对台湾所下达的「临时限制令」。

笔者多次强调，台湾在外交政策上所设定的目标必须要更实际，如果一方面希望在国际间被视为一个正常国家来对待，一方面又希望在国际场合能受到一些特别待遇，会变得四不像。笔者在此呼吁台湾的选民眼睛要保持雪亮，这次要选的是地方代表与首长，而不是投给中央。外交票值得继续观察，留到2024年的总统大选再决定吧！

（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席）

英文原文：

Taiwan Local Election: A Foreign Policy Election?

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

Given the amount of foreign policy activities in Taiwan recently, one might think that the local election (not a “mid-term” election as some foreign journalist and scholars mistakenly describe it) on November 26 is about foreign policy rather than issues of local governance, and that the Democratic Progressive Party also hopes voters consider the central government’s foreign policy achievements when deciding which candidate to vote for.

From countries that recognize the Republic of China, the leaders of Eswatini, Nauru, Palau, St. Kitts and Nevis visited Taipei, and Vice President William Lai visited Palau. The United Kingdom Minister of State for Trade Policy Greg Hands visited Taiwan for bilateral trade talks. Lithuania finally opened its trade office in Taipei, and, the United States and Taiwan held the first negotiations of the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade.

Parliamentarians from Canada, Germany, India, Japan, Ukraine, and the United States among other countries visited Taipei in October and November, and local government lawmakers also visited Taiwan, such as a delegation from Okinawa.

Taiwan government officials, legislators, and scholars hosted or participated in a number of forums in Taipei, including the Yushan Forum, the World Movement for Democracy Global Assembly, International Conference on PRC’s Power Shift and Governance, the Oslo Freedom Forum, and a Japan, US, Taiwan lawmakers trilateral security dialogue.

However, these developments, if they were an attempt to introduce foreign policy “success” into the local election campaign, appear to put quantity over quality.

A United Kingdom Minister of State (similar to a deputy minister in Taiwan) visit to Taiwan is not unprecedented. Of more concern in Taiwan-UK relations is whether budget considerations may preclude new Prime Minister Rushi Sunak from following through on Boris Johnson’s plans for a robust British military presence in the Indo Pacific. Sunak’s recent statement that the United Kingdom refuses to rule out sending arms to Taiwan is not the same as actually selling arms to Taiwan, and in fact, Taiwan media reported in October that the United Kingdom denied an export permit for two rifles to be used by President Tsai’s protection detail.

The many recent “conferences”, “dialogues” and “forums” in Taipei attract little global attention. At the Yushan Forum, speakers former Australia foreign minister Julie Bishop, former New Zealand deputy prime minister of New Zealand Winston Peters, and former Thai Deputy Prime Minister Phongthep Thepkanjana are critics of their home country government. At the World Movement for Democracy Global Assembly, speaker Nobel Prize winner Maria Ressa is similarly a government critic. Inviting such critics to events in Taipei has the risk of a negative effect on those countries relations with Taiwan. Despite hopes earlier this year that basketball player and human rights advocate Enes Freedom would attend the Oslo Freedom Forum in person, he did not come to Taipei.

Although these events in Taiwan might be popular with American, European and Japanese government officials or lawmakers, government officials and lawmakers from Asean countries mostly stay away. Recent statements by Singapore’s Senior Minister & Coordinating Minister for National Security Teo Chee Hean, and Deputy Prime Minister (and future Prime Minister) Lawrence Wong drew a contrast between Singapore’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and why it does not apply to Taiwan, and reiterated Singapore’s neutrality in China-US disputes. Former Malaysia Prime Minister Mahatir Mohamad also recently criticized House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei as it “increased tension” and was “a provocation”.

Taiwan was again excluded from multilateral events in October and November including the Interpol General Assembly (host country India, despite hopes in Taiwan it wants a closer bilateral relationship appears to have been silent about Taiwan’s exclusion), the International Counter Ransomware Initiative Summit at the White House, the Sharm el-Sheikh Climate Change Conference (COP 27), the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, and the G20 meeting in Bali. It appears that former President Barack Obama did not invite a prominent Taiwan participant to a democracy forum his foundation hosted on November 17. The pity party events hosted by the Taiwan government on the sidelines of multilateral events, the letters Taiwan government officials publish in overseas media to plead for Taiwan’s participation in multilateral meetings, or the various recent forums held in Taipei, do not remedy Taiwan’s exclusion from these events.

Lithuania’s office in Taipei opened nearly a year after Taiwan opened its office in Lithuania, and it followed a negative report in Lithuania state media that Taiwan is slow to make good on its promises to invest US$200,000,000 in the country’s tech sector (shortly after, Taiwan announced a small initial investment).

The US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade is a mostly one-sided initiative for the United States to obtain concessions from Taiwan, and appears to rebrand the U.S.-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue announced in 2020 for which there was no substantive outcomes.

Recently the European Union began efforts to reduce tensions with China. Not only did German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visit China, but before that, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, said the escalation of tension in the Taiwan Strait “was triggered by an individual travel of a personality that brought the Taiwan Strait at the edge of – I would not say a war, but – a lot of war games”. This prompted Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to issue a rare public rebuke of Borrell.

In the US mid-term election, most Taiwan-friendly Members of Congress were re-elected. However, two lost their seats: Long time Taiwan-friend Steve Chabot (Republican of Ohio) and Elaine Luria (Democrat of Virginia), who in October 2021 authored a commentary in The Washington Post advocating to grant the US President authorty to send troops to assist Taiwan if there is war with China. Following the Xi Jinping – Joe Biden meeting, President Biden emphasized that the US opposes changes to the status quo by either side, a reminder to the Taiwan government that the Biden Administration’s “temporary restraining order” on Taiwan is still in place.

This author previously opined that Taiwan cannot achieve everything it wants in its foreign policy goals; in other words, countries treat Taiwan as a normal country rather than a country that deserves special treatment. Ongoing events continue to demonstrate this. Hopefully Taiwan's voters will keep this in mind in the upcoming local election and vote based on who can best lead their local municipality and save foreign policy considerations for their vote in the presidential and legislative elections in January 2024.