时论广场》葛来仪事件对台湾大选的省思（方恩格）

美国学者葛来仪（资料照片／中央社）

「批柯文哲蓄意扭曲不道德　葛来仪：我不是为他背书」、 「独立已经是现状」 、「葛来仪不满照片遭擅用谈外交政见　侯友宜致歉」。

这些是最近台湾媒体的头条新闻，涉及一位美国学者、「德国马歇尔基金会」印太计划主任葛来仪。为何葛来仪今年屡屡登上台湾新闻头条？

是因为下个月的选举，葛来仪会竞选总统还是立法委员？当然不是，她没有资格。那么她是总统候选人的顾问吗？不，她也不是，尽管台湾政府有可能对她工作过的智库提供赞助。

总统候选人是否认为，如果葛来仪对他们说正面的话，他们赢得选举的可能性就会增加？看起来确实如此，不过台湾的总统候选人如此在意外国学者的观点，却是非常可笑的。

在最近的事件中，宣传国民党候选人侯友宜外交政策的资料中，用了一张今年稍早他访问华府时，与葛来仪见面的照片。葛来仪随后在X（以前称推特）发布了一条讯息，其中标记了中国国民党和侯友宜，并写道：「请不要使用我的照片或我的言论来暗示我支持侯市长，我没有。」

侯友宜随后在X上公开道歉，承认竞选团队错误使用了葛来仪的照片。另一方面，国民党立委李德维也委婉描述这一事件，他说全台湾2300万人当中，认识葛来仪的大概只有1、2万人。

笔者常说，国民党若想在台湾走回重新执政的道路，这条路绝对不会是要靠出国镀金来完成。然而，侯竞选团队决定在侯的外交政策演讲中使用葛来仪照片的人，并没有采纳这个建议，他们似乎认为使用葛来仪与侯的照片会给选民留下深刻印象。

侯友宜使用葛来仪的照片，让我想起蒋孝严在立法院选举时，在竞选广告中使用了他与美国前国务卿鲍威尔的合照。蒋孝严当选了立法委员，但他获胜的原因绝不是因为与鲍威尔的合照。

距离投票日还剩不到1个月的时间，葛来仪事件正好提醒我们，这次选举我们是为何而投票。

首先，外国学者、记者和政界人士多次称台湾是「充满活力的民主国家」。笔者更愿意说台湾是一个「成熟的民主国家」。没有什么比即将卸任的总统向即将上任的总统和平转移政权更能证明这一点，无论获胜的候选人是哪个政党。

其次，台湾政客和媒体应该停止膜拜外国智库学者。这些学者对台湾的了解往往比想像的要少，而他们所了解的那「很少」的事物，也多半是基于过时的资讯或他们在台湾少数英文媒体上读到的资料。

第三，也许由于葛来仪照片的争议，很少有选民会记得侯的外交政策建议是什么。事实上，侯友宜提出新南向政策不再以东协、印度、澳洲和纽西兰为重点，而是将政策范围扩大到整个印太地区，简单来说就是加上韩国和日本。侯说，他将寻求加入「跨太平洋伙伴全面进步协定」（CPTPP）和美国主导的印太经济繁荣架构（IPEF）。蔡英文总统曾寻求加入CPTPP和IPEF，但未能成功。

第四，包括台湾在内的大多数民主国家，外交政策通常不是决定选民投票给谁的关键。而是，选民会根据个人经济问题做出决定，包括通货膨胀、住房成本或抚养孩子的成本。在这次选举中，即使两岸政策对某些选民来说很重要，但其他外交政策议题对选民来说并不重要。

最后，总统和立委选举将由台湾选民决定。这不是由中国、美国等其他政府决定的选举，更不是由智库学者、大学教授、记者、社群媒体评论员、专栏作家等外国人决定的。

（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席）

Lessons From Latest Bonnie Glaser Incident

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

@RossFeingold

“U.S. scholar says Taiwan presidential hopeful Ko 'twisted' her remarks”. “Independence is already ‘status quo’.” “Glaser Unhappy Her Photo Used to Promote Foreign Policy, Hou Apologizes”.

These are headlines in the Taiwan during 2023 with regard to one foreign scholar, Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Why is Glaser repeatedly in Taiwan’s news headlines this year?

Is she running for president or the Legislative Yuan in next month’s election? Of course she is not, she is not eligible.

Is she an adviser to the presidential candidates? No, she is not, though it’s possible that the Taiwan government provides funding to the “think tanks” where she has worked.

Do the presidential candidates seem to think that if she says positive words about them, it increases the likelihood they win the election? It seems so, though it is very ridiculous for Taiwan’s presidential candidates to care so much about the views of a foreign scholar.

In the most recent incident, materials to promote Chinese Nationalist Party candidate Hou Yu-ih’s foreign policy used a photo of Glaser greeting Hou at an event when Hou visited Washington DC earlier this year. Glaser subsequently posted a message to X (formerly known as Twitter) in which she tagged both the Chinese Nationalist Party and Hou, and wrote: “Please do not use my photo or my statements in ways that suggest I have endorsed Mayor Hou. I have not.”

Hou then posted a public apology on X, which is an admission that the Hou campaign team was wrong to use Glaser’s photo.

On the other hand, Chinese Nationalist Party Legislator Lee De-wei also described this incident well when he said out of 23,000,000 people in Taiwan, maybe ten thousand to twenty thousand know who Glaser is.

This author previously wrote in the China Times that the path to the Chinese Nationalist Party’s electoral success does not go through Washington DC. However, the people on Hou’s campaign team who decided to use Glaser’s photo in Hou’s foreign policy presentation didn’t take this advice, and they seem to think using a photo of Glaser with Hou would impress voters.

The use of Glaser’s photo by Hou reminded me of when John Chiang, in a Legislative Yuan election, used in campaign advertisements a photo of himself with former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell. Chiang was elected to the Legislative Yuan, though the reason for his victory was not because of a photo with Colin Powell.

With Taiwan voting day less than one month away, these Glaser incidents are a good reminder about this election is, and is not, about.

First, foreign scholars, journalists, and politicians repeatedly say that Taiwan is a “vibrant democracy”. This author prefers to say that Taiwan is a mature democracy. Nothing demonstrates this more than the peaceful transfer of power from the outgoing president to the incoming president, regardless of which political party the winning candidate represents.

Second, Taiwan politicians and media should stop worshiping foreign think tank scholars. These scholars often know less than they think they do about Taiwan, and what little that they do know, is often based on outdated information or what they read in the few English language media in Taiwan.

Third, perhaps due to the controversy over the Glaser photo, few voters will remember what Hou’s foreign policy proposals are. In fact, Hou proposed that instead of the New Southbound Policy focused on ASEAN, India, Australia and New Zealand, he will expand the policy to include the entire Indo-Pacific region (which simply means adding South Korea and Japan). Hou says he will pursue joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). President Tsai Ing-wen sought to join the CPTPP and IPEF, but failed.

Fourth, in most democracies including Taiwan, foreign policy is usually not the issue that will determine who voters vote for. Typically, voters will base their decision on personal economic issues, including inflation, the cost of housing, or the cost of raising children. In this election, even if China policy matters to some voters, other foreign policy issues are not important for voters.

And finally, the presidential and Legislative Yuan elections are to be decided by the voters of Taiwan. It is not an election to be decided by other governments such as China or the United States, and it is certainly not decided by foreigners such as think tank scholars, university professors, journalists, commentators on social media, or a China Times columnist.