时论广场》以巴冲突为台湾提供宝贵教训（方恩格）

尽管美国将继续在中东发挥关键作用，中国同样也会扮演日益重要的角色。（图／路透）

有鉴于台湾面临中国大陆潜在侵入的威胁，以及台湾军队最近缺乏实际作战经验，世界各地任何真枪实弹的战争都值得台湾的军事和民政领导层进行研究。以色列与哈玛斯之间的战争当然也不例外。这场战争是如何开始，如何进行，以及如何结束都将为台湾提供宝贵的教训。因此，国防部已经成立了一个专案小组来研究这场战争。

对乌克兰战争的反应亦然，尽管在战争开始之前和不久之后，台湾政府官员曾强调乌克兰和台湾因本质上不同而不适合做比较。在那个时候，世界各国普遍预期俄罗斯会轻易击败乌克兰。但是当勇敢的乌克兰人民成功证明他们有能力保家卫国时，人们又突然开始说「今日乌克兰，明日台湾」。

事实上，我们无法断言台湾会像乌克兰和以色列各自面对俄罗斯和哈玛斯恐怖分子的入侵一样，以同样的方式回应中国大陆的入侵。然而，在现在哈玛斯与以色列战争的早期阶段，对台湾来说已经有了一些宝贵的教训。

首先，以色列动员其训练有素的后备部队，其速度之快值得台湾学习。在动员宣布的数小时内，以色列就有超过30万名预备役军人报到执行职务。台湾是否能达到同样效果呢？当被问及这个问题时，国防部长邱国正在中央社的报导中「未能给出直接回答，仅表示台湾是一个小国，而其武装部队已经制定了动员计划。」然而，由于台湾尚未执行过如此大规模的演习，国防部无法确切得知在紧急情况下，有资格被召回的男性将会以多快的速度，或者会以多少比例的人数报到。

第二，是美国迅速向以色列运送武器的速度。在以色列遭遇袭击并宣布与哈玛斯开战的几天内，美国就运送武器到了以色列。就如同乌克兰一样，以色列可能会迅速使用其存储的武器和弹药，并需要美国提供的补给。然而，这一情况发生在美国向台湾交付武器的交货出现延宕之际，而美国政府迄今为止解决这些延迟的努力，又因乌克兰和现在以色列的情况下而尚无成效。

第三，是以色列官员们的英语能力。无论是以色列总理班杰明·纳坦雅胡还是以色列军方的发言人，他们都能够流利地说英语并且能够自如地与国际媒体进行对话。同样地，乌克兰总统泽伦斯基也能够以流利的英语对话，而许多乌克兰政府官员和国会成员也是如此。比英语能力更重要的，是对全球经济、政治和安全发展的充分了解。台湾需要一位具备这些知识的总统，以及能够自如地与外国政府和外国媒体进行对话的官员。坦白说，许多台湾政府官员在英语技能以及对台湾以外世界的认识上都还有很大的进步空间。

第四，世界关注的焦点并不会总是放在台湾或印太地区。无论是在贸易还是安全方面上，美国都将继续在中东发挥关键作用。国务卿布林肯上周对该地区的访问即证实了这一点。与此同时，沙乌地阿拉伯提出与以色列建立外交关系条件之一是，美国必须提供核能技术和安全保证。尽管台湾可能希望美国专注于印太地区，但美国将继续投入大量的时间和资源在中东地区。

最后，尽管美国将继续在中东发挥关键作用，中国同样也会扮演日益重要的角色。不同以往，中国曾避免在中东政治里发挥重要作用，而是仅限于扩大贸易关系；然而，今年早些时候，中国在伊朗和沙乌地阿拉伯和解过程中所扮演的「交易者」角色表明，中国认为自己在该地区应该扮演更重要的角色。就像在911事件后美国和西欧寻求中国一同协助打击恐怖主义时一样，若是中东正在发生不稳定或战争，美国和西欧将继续要求中国运用其影响力，与伊朗等国家合作，以防止更广泛的战争。因此，中国派遣了其特使前往中东地区拜访。

如果美国希望中国在中东地区提供协助，我们可以预期一件事，那就是美国将继续告诉，或是公开表示，美国对台湾的政策保持不变。尽管美国国会可能通过一项军事援助法案，其中包括对乌克兰和以色列的援助，台湾当然也不例外；但我们还是希望，台湾不会因为全球对中东地区的关注以及美国和欧洲想与中国合作而在政治上受到挫败。

（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席，翻译：许淳恩）

原文：

Today Israel, Tomorrow Taiwan?

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

Given the threat that Taiwan faces of a potential invasion by the Mainland, and, Taiwan’s military lack of recent actual combat experience, any shooting war around the world is worthy of study by Taiwan’s military and civilian leadership. The war between Israel and Hamas is no different. How the war began, how it is conducted, and how it ends will provide valuable lessons for Taiwan. The Ministry of National Defense has already established a working group to study the war.

The same with the war in in Ukraine, notwithstanding that prior to and shortly after the war began, Taiwan government officials discouraged comparisons between Ukraine and Taiwan. That was at a time when the world expected Russia to easily defeat Ukraine. When Ukraine’s brave people proved capable of defending their country, suddenly it was popular to compare Taiwan by saying “Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan”.

The truth is, it is impossible to say that Taiwan will respond to a Mainland invasion the same way Ukraine responded to Russia’s invasion, and it is impossible to say that Taiwan will respond to a Mainland invasion the same way Israel responded to the Hamas terrorists invasion.

However, at this early stage of the Hamas – Israel war, there are already several valuable lessons for Taiwan.

First, is the speed at which Israel mobilized its well trained reserve. Within hours of the mobilization announcement, over three hundred thousand members of Israel’s reserves reported for duty. Is this likely in Taiwan? When asked this, Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng, per a Central News Agency report, “did not give a direct answer, saying only that Taiwan is a small country, and its armed forces have mobilization plans in place.” The reality is, having not carried out such a large exercise, the Ministry of National Defense does not know how quickly, or what percentage of, men eligible for recall in an emergency will report for duty.

Second, is the speed at which the US dispatched weapons to Israel. Within days of the attack on Israel and Israel’s announcement that it is at war with Hamas, the United States shipped weapons to Israel. Just as in Ukraine, Israel is likely to rapidly use weapons and ammunition that it had in storage, and needs the replenishment that the United States provided. However, this comes at a time when weapons deliveries to Taiwan are delayed, and the efforts of the United States government to fix such delays have failed so far given the situation in Ukraine, and now, Israel.

Third, is the English language ability of Israeli officials. Whether it is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, or the spokespersons for Israel’s military, they are fluent in English and comfortable speaking to the international media. Similarly, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is comfortable speaking in English (notwithstanding that he speaks with an accent), as are many Ukraine government officials and members of Ukraine’s parliament. More important than English language ability is sufficient knowledge of global economic, political and security developments. Taiwan’s needs a president with sufficient knowledge of such things, and officials who are comfortable speaking to foreign governments and foreign media. To be frank, many Taiwan government officials (as well as candidates for president) have much room for improvement in English skills and knowledge of the world beyond Taiwan.

Fourth, the center of the world’s attention is not always going to be Taiwan or the Indo Pacific. The United States will continue to play a key role in the Middle East whether in trade or security. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to the region last week demonstrates this. So does Saudi Arabia’s request that in return for establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, the United States must provide nuclear power technology and a security guarantee. As much as we in Taiwan might want the US to focus on the Indo Pacific, the US will continue to devote much time and resources to the Middle East.

Finally, even though the United States will continue to play a key role in the Middle East, China will increasingly play a key role too. Unlike in the past when China avoided playing a key role in the politics of the Middle East and limited itself to expanding trade relations, the “dealmaker” role China played earlier this year in the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia demonstrated that China sees a more expanded role for itself in the region. Just like after 911 when the United States and western Europe sought China’s assistance in the War on Terror, if there is instability or war in the Middle East, the United States and western Europe will continue to ask China to use its influence with countries such as Iran to prevent a wider war. Thus, China dispatched its special envoy for the Middle East to visit the region.

If the United States expects China’s help in the Middle East, one can expect the United States to continue to tell China, or publicly say, that its policy towards Taiwan remains unchanged. Although the United States Congress might pass a military aid bill for Ukraine and Israel that also includes Taiwan, let’s hope Taiwan does not suffer political setbacks due to a global focus on events in the Middle East and a desire by the United States and Europe to cooperate with China.