时论广场》裴洛西毕业之旅 台湾平常心面对（方恩格 Ross Darrell Feingold）

美国联邦众议院议长裴洛西。（美联社）

美国众议院议长裴洛西的访台与否真是扑朔迷离，目前她很有可能人已经在前往台湾的路途中，也有可能已决定取消了行程。自从《金融时报》爆料她可能访台的消息，随后关于中共反应、拜登总统与美国军方的反对、7月28日拜习通话、还有也来参一脚的川普前总统对于裴洛西的批评等，各媒体与专家在过去一周对于裴洛西访台一事做出了铺天盖地的报导与评论。

近来只要传出美国有政治人物要访台，两岸都会立刻过度反应。虽然根据美国宪法，在美国总统继任顺序中，众议院议长是继副总统后的第二顺位，就官阶来看，裴洛西访台似乎对中国而言十分敏感。但笔者欲在此呼吁台湾民众无须小题大作，因为裴洛西不是该职级上第一位访台的人。1997年美国的众议院议长金瑞契（Newt Gingrich）访问过台湾，与他会面的是当时在任的李登辉总统。

我们无须小题大作的其他几个原因，还包括了裴洛西即将离任议长一职。而共和党很有可能会在11月的众议院选举中赢得多数席位。就算民主党仍保留多数席位，民主党团很可能会选出新的议长，所以裴洛西再续任的可能性极低。而她与台湾的官方往来也已有前例，蔡总统过境美国时，有与裴洛西通过电话。今年年初，赖清德副总统也与裴洛西进行过视讯通话。

尽管裴洛西在香港、西藏和新疆等与中国相关问题上扮演了重要角色，但就军购、促成自由贸易协定等台美合作相关议题上，她并没有特别杰出的贡献。之前有国会议员团向裴洛西议长提议邀请蔡英文总统赴美国国会演讲，但她对此已读不回。

站在现实面，一位即将离任的政治人物以纳税人的钱进行海外参访，这不就是我们在台湾所说的「毕业旅行」吗？而共和党在今年期中选举力打中国牌、批判民主党对中态度不够强硬，裴洛西很有可能想利用这趟造访台湾的毕业旅行来帮民主党来扳回一城颜面。

若裴洛西访台确定成行，笔者认为值得观察的几个要点如下：

一、她会在台湾停留多久？金瑞契当年只在台湾短暂停留了数小时，并没有过夜。但这次若裴洛西也一样不在台湾留宿，实在会让台湾很没面子。就算她真的也只停留几小时，至少应该进到总统府与蔡总统会面，而不是像2021年6月美国参议员来台时那样让蔡总统劳驾至松山机场会见他们。

二、台湾人如何表达他们的台湾味热情？在今年前国务卿蓬佩奥访台时，一位在民进党党内初选中角逐台中市议员的候选人大手笔刊登了一个户外广告看板，上面大大写着对蓬佩奥的热烈欢迎字样。很可惜蓬佩奥当时并未造访台中来亲眼目睹这个看板，而这位候选人也落选了。台湾各界会再以什么样充满台湾创意与人情味的方式，来表达他们对于裴洛西的欢迎，会比对于蓬佩奥更热情吗？台北101的灯墙是否会写上「Thank you Speaker Pelosi（谢谢裴洛西议长）」？让我们拭目以待。

三、她是否将会见在野党？国民党主席朱立伦这次与政府同调、热烈欢迎裴洛西访台。尽管国民党内部似乎意见分歧，有人公开指出裴洛西是根据自身利益来台，但国民党驻美代表黄介正在《纽约时报》的访问中将裴洛西在台湾的形象塑造得家喻户晓、有很多粉丝。好话说尽，国民党当然是希望能争取与她碰面的机会。若裴洛西真的会见了国民党，但并未会见台湾民众党，那么对于后者而言，也产生了一个指标性的提示：民众党需要加强他们的国际地位与外交上的存在感。

四、蔡总统对裴洛西的谈话内容。 蔡总统会围绕的主题，不外乎就是她对所有访台的外宾常说的话：站在民主同盟的立场、维护民主价值坚若磐石。除了中国问题，蔡总统与裴洛西之间有许多共通话题，如全民健保、婚姻平权、堕胎权、反死刑、气候变迁政策、以及抗疫政策等议题。蔡总统可以聊的很多，但她绝对不会提起蔡政府与裴洛西的死对头共和党所建立的深刻友谊。例如最近驻美代表萧美琴所参与由共和党籍众议员组成的中国工作小组（China Task Force）一事，这群高调支持台湾的共和党众议员与裴洛西极度不合。除了中国问题之外，这群共和党众议员与民进党的政治立场可说是天壤之别。

五、裴洛西对蔡总统的谈话内容。 尽管金瑞契议长访台期间曾表示美国将保卫台湾，但回顾拜登总统多次脱口而出表示美国将保卫台湾，随后他的救火团队得立刻站出来澄清，称美国对台政策保持不变。综观时局，裴洛西不太可能做出什么承诺。那么裴洛西可能会做出什么进一步的亲台动作？可以想见的是，她既不会邀请蔡总统到美国国会演说、也不会提议拜登政府向台湾出售更多武器、更不会一夕之间突然成为促进台美自由贸易协定的推手。除了口头上表达对民主同盟价值与道义上支持之外，台湾民众无须过度期待她会做出大动作挺台湾的实质作为。

放眼望去，台湾正张灯结彩、准备热烈欢迎裴洛西的到来，并有许多人强调她的访台之行富含重大的意义、台美关系具突破性发展、中国外交受挫等。笔者认为在中国不采取重大军事行动的前提之下，裴洛西若真的访台，很可能只会是一趟雷声大雨点小的行程。在此可以预见，也将于今年底访台的前NBA球员恩尼斯‧坎特（Enes Freedom）来台时，应该也会让台湾掀起另一波旋风式的迎接热潮。

（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席）

英文全文：

Pelosi Visit to Taiwan Could Be Non-Event

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

@RossFeingold

Perhaps by the time this commentary is published, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi will already be in, or on her way to, Taiwan. Alternatively, perhaps she will have already cancelled the proposed visit. The uncertainty over the past ten days whether she will visit, ever since it was leaked to the Financial Times, has resulted in an extraordinary amount of media attention about China’s possible responses, President Joe Biden’s peculiar public statement that the U.S. military thinks the trip is not a good idea, speculation about what warnings Xi Jinping gave President Joe Biden during their teleconference on July 28, and a message on Truth Social from President Trump criticizing Pelosi for visiting Taiwan.

As usual when an American politician visits Taiwan, there is an enormous over reaction in both Taiwan and China, though in this case it is more sensitive for China because under the U.S. Constitution the House Speaker is second in the presidential line of succession after the vice president.

Why is the overreaction unnecessary? There is a precedent for a House Speaker’s visit, as House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited Taipei in 1997 and met President Lee Teng-hui. Pelosi is the outgoing speaker; Republicans are likely to win a majority in the House of Representatives in the November election, or, on the outside chance the Democrats retain the House majority, it is unlikely Pelosi would seek again to be the speaker. President Tsai spoke with Pelosi by phone when President Tsai transited the United States, and earlier this year Vice President William Lai had a videoconference with Pelosi. Thus, we should view Pelosi’s visit with these realities in mind.

Although Pelosi at times has had a high-profile role in China related issues such as Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang, she is not known for a significant role on Taiwan issues such as weapons sales, a possible free trade agreement, or the many Taiwan-friendly resolutions and legislation in the House. Pelosi also did not invite Tsai to address Congress, despite requests from Members of Congress that she do so.

The reality is, as we say in Mandarin when an outgoing politician uses taxpayer money to fund overseas travel, this trip is a “graduation tour” for Pelosi. It is also an attempt to mitigate the Republican talking point in this year’s mid-term election that the Democrats are not tough on China.

Some things to watch for if Pelosi visits Taiwan:

1. How Long Will Pelosi Stay? Newt Gingrich only visited for a few hours and did not stay overnight. If Pelosi doesn’t stay overnight, in this author’s opinion it would be humiliating for Taiwan, but Pelosi should at least enter Taipei and visit the Presidential Office, rather than President Tsai go to Songshan Airport like Tsai did in June 2021 to meet visiting US Senators.

2. Pelosi Adulation? The government has publicly welcomed the possibility that Pelosi will visit. Earlier this year when former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited, a Democratic Progressive Party candidate competing in a primary for city councilor in Taichung put a welcome message to Pompeo on a large outdoor billboard (Pompeo didn’t visit Taichung and the candidate later lost in the primary). Will the media, politicians and public similarly go overboard in Pelosi adulation, such as lighting up the Taipei 101 façade with a “thank you Speaker Pelosi” message as was done for Pompeo?

3. Will Pelosi Meet Opposition Parties: Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, Chairman Eric Chu Li-luan echoed the government in welcoming Pelosi’s visit, even though some Kuomintang personalities accused Pelosi of coming to Taiwan to seek money. Kuomintang Washington Representative Alexander Huang told The New York Times that “Speaker Pelosi has many admirers in Taiwan” which is more a desperate attempt to obtain a meeting with Pelosi than an accurate assessment of Pelosi’s status in Taiwan. If Pelosi visits the Kuomintang but not the Taiwan People’s Party, it will show the latter has much work to do before the United States takes it seriously.

4. What Will President Tsai Say to Pelosi: President Tsai will say the usual things she says to visiting foreign politicians such as Taiwan and the United States are fellow democracies and have shared values. Separate from China issues, perhaps President Tsai will ingratiate herself with Pelosi by emphasizing the many policy views she shares with Pelosi such as national health care, marriage equality, abortion access, death penalty opposition, policies to address climate change, and for COVID-19 mask mandates and widespread use of vaccines. It is unlikely President Tsai will mention her government’s friendship with Republicans who detest Pelosi, such as the recent meeting Representative to the United States Bi-khim Hsiao had with the House Republican “China Task Force”, a group of Republican House members who support Taiwan, detest Pelosi, and have dramatically different views from the DPP on non-China issues.

5. What Will Speaker Pelosi Say to President Tsai? During his visit, Speaker Gingrich said the United States will defend Taiwan. It is unlikely Pelosi will say this, especially after Biden has several times said the United States will defend Taiwan only for his aides to later emphasize that U.S. policy towards Taiwan is unchanged. It is also unlikely Speaker Pelosi will invite President Tsai to address Congress in person, offer to encourage the Biden Administration to sell more weapons to Taiwan, express support for a free trade agreement, or otherwise say anything substantive beyond expressions of moral support for a fellow democracy.

Ultimately, unless there is a significant military action by China, Speaker Pelosi’s visit might turn out to be a non-event. One thing we can be certain of is that the excitement in Taiwan over Pelosi’s visit will be repeated for the next significant foreign dignitary to visit Taiwan. Basketball player Enes Freedom, expected to visit Taiwan later this year, should prepare accordingly!