时论广场》国民党重返执政的捷径（方恩格 Ross Darrell Feingold）

大陆全国政协主席汪洋5日在北京人民大会堂会见国民党前主席洪秀柱。（新华社）

去年国民党发的春联上写的是「牛转乾坤」，转眼来到了虎年，国民党内外的形象不但没有被扭转，反倒每况愈下。国民党主席朱立伦到底该如何扭转乾坤，来让国民党犹如他们今年所发出的春联「福虎生风」呢？

让我们来看看近来国民党在其国际形象的失分关键。首先，美国针对这次北京奥运进行了所谓「外交抵制」，而日本虽不称之为抵制，亦不派官员出席。在这两个台湾最亲密的国际盟友都频频拉开与中国的距离之际，前国民党主席洪秀柱则是逆着风向、风光出席了北京奥运开幕典礼。

「中国环球电视网」、《中国日报》和「新华社」等中国官媒在其国际版面刊布了台湾来的洪秀柱出席了北京奥运的相关新闻，于是美国如《华盛顿邮报》等大报也转述了相关报导。要知道在美国，无论是国务院、国会议员、学者等关注台湾情势的人，看到洪秀柱仍然会自动连结至国民党，加上洪秀柱出访北京的行程算是得到了党主席朱立伦的背书，她在北京与中共中央政治局常委和全国政协主席汪洋的会面，以及她在脸书上对两岸关系的评论等行为，都很容易被外界直接解读为是国民党的立场。朱立伦虽然表明了他支持与对岸保持对话的态度，但这是否能被台湾大多数选民所接受、并且符合美国和日本对于台湾立场的期待，令人质疑。

国民党的国际形象在近期的第二个失分在于朱主席的访美之行又再度延期。如果他在今年夏天仍未成行，那么这个行程多半只能告吹。毕竟他必须要加快脚步投入11月的地方选举、开始替党提名的候选人助选。在台湾的严密隔离政策之下，他若自美返台后还需要隔离，这将会让他的时间益见紧迫。

站在美国国会议员的立场，今年除了要忙期中选举，还加上紧凑的立法日程，要他们拨空会晤声望持续滑落的他国在野党代表，实有难度。而美国的行政部门或政府官员，手中也有其他比会见朱主席更重要的优先事项（例如乌俄危机）。至于美国学者和智库，虽然许多台湾政客将他们的发言视为圭臬，但他们在美国政坛并不具有实质的重大影响力，此外，他们通常也都尽量与台湾政府保持良好关系，所以现在对国民党的态度采批评多过赞扬。

在美国最有影响力的政治决策者心目中，国民党的形象除了被冠上友中标签，大家想到国民党，也会立即想起在去年12月的公投他们坚决反对莱猪进口台湾的立场，视其为美国与台湾贸易流通的阻碍。

尽管国民党企图表现出自己有跟上时事脚步、在推特上写道「恭贺美国发布印太战略，我们已准备好与美国政府进行深入讨论，以促进台美在印太地区的共同利益。」但站在在野党的立场，想要引起美国政府的好感，这样的推文姿态可能不会是最好的方式。

如果朱主席仍然坚持想去趟美国，应该将访美行程重点专注于造访国民党在美的支持者、国民党的在美选民、以及侨界募款等能巩固国民党民心的活动，而非企图接近美国政坛的决策者、刻意亲近或拉拢他们。然而笔者始终认为这趟访美之旅对他而言并非明智之举。他的出访行程动辄得咎，除了需要承担国民党的声势持续疲软的风险，还有极高可能性会因得不到来自美国的实际支持，而碰得一鼻子灰、空手而归。

而蔡政府宣布取消对日本福岛地区食品的进口禁令又是踩了国民党一记痛脚。此消息一宣布，国民党立刻发动猛力批评，但由于民进党在莱猪议题上成功以台湾应保持贸易往来的竞争力等经济因素说服了选民通过公投表决，在日本核灾地区的食品进口议题上，民进党顺理成章也能以同样论述成功过关。

说到贸易来往，国民党在脸书发文暗示，若台湾未能获得《跨太平洋伙伴全面进步协定》（CPTPP）的入场券，吴钊燮应请辞外交部长一职以示负责。鉴于多边贸易协定通常需要长时间的协商与沟通，要赶在2024年5月蔡政府第二任期结束之前，达成台湾加入 CPTPP的协商，有很高的难度。顺理推之，照国民党的「建议」，难道他们是预测在下届总统大选之后，吴部长仍然会续任？这不也就代表了他们唱衰自己将会输掉下一场总统大选？

对内，国民党现今在台湾的支持度来到了冰点；对外，他们想要超越蔡英文总统在国际的良好形象甚是困难。笔者再三强调，国民党若想在台湾走回重新执政的道路，这条路绝对不会是要靠出国镀金来完成。他们不应舍近求远，既无须绕道至美国华府，也无须跑到日本东京。

要扭转自己的国际形象，国民党首先必须在今年台湾地方选举中脱颖而出，进而提升自己在2024年总统大选的气势与声望。在地方选举获得胜利之前，建议不要希冀对美国的支持抱有太大的希望。正如巴顿将军那句流传在每个美国人心中的名言：「美国人爱的是赢家，他们不会站在输家的那一边。」国民党在与美国打交道之前，先好好努力提升自己在台湾选民心中的地位，才是根本之道。（作者为前美国共和党亚太区主席）

英文全文：

The Kuomintang’s International Week of Woe

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

Recent days have not been good for the already poor international image of the Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang. Will chairman Eric Chu be able to fix this any time soon, and what can he do to achieve that?

Despite the non-attendance by Taiwan’s two closest friends (for the United States, a so-called “diplomatic boycott” and for Japan, a decision not to send officials but without calling it a boycott), former Kuomintang chairwoman and presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu attended the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony. Her attendance at the Olympics opening ceremony was reported by The Washington Post and of course, by the English language platforms of China state media including CGTN, China Daily, and Xinhua. Foreign stakeholders such as the United States State Department, Members of Congress, and scholars will still associate Hung Hsiu-chu with the Kuomintang, especially as prior to her trip Hung Hsiu-chu informed Chairman Chu of her intention to attend the Olympics opening ceremony. This will apply to her attendance at the Opening ceremony, her meeting with Politburo Standing Committee member and Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People\'s Political Consultative Conference Wang Yang, and her Facebook comments about China-Taiwan relations.

Although Chairman Chu endorsed dialogue with China, if this is a policy that is acceptable to a majority of Taiwan voters as well as to the United States and Japan probably requires further details.

A second bit of negative news for Kuomintang’s international image in recent days was the acknowledgement that there is no firm date yet for Chairman Chu’s trip to the United States though the hope is that it will occur prior to the summer. If it does not occur prior to the summer, it won’t occur at all, given the local elections that will occur in November and the need for the party chairman to campaign for the party’s candidates (and if there is a quarantine upon entry into Taiwan, this will add to the number of days Chairman Chu is unavailable to campaign). Regardless, this author has consistently taken the view in authored commentaries and on television panels that a trip to the United States by the Kuomintang chairman at this time is a bad idea, as the risk of no achievement far outweigh any possible achievements. From the perspective of the US Congress, this year’s mid-term election and a busy legislative calendar limit Members of Congress interest in spending time with the chairman of an unpopular foreign opposition party. Similarly, executive branch agencies have far higher priorities such as the Ukraine crisis, and scholars (few of whom have real influence notwithstanding the awe they are sometimes held in by politicians in Taiwan) must maintain a good relationship with the incumbent government in Taiwan and are more likely to criticize than to praise Chairman Chu. The Kuomintang’s image with American decisionmakers, if not suffering from a pro-China image, still suffers from the anti-ractopamine pork position the Kuomintang took in last December’s referendum, as it would have resulted in US made pork that includes ractopamine remaining banned from entering Taiwan. Although the Kuomintang tweeted that it “welcomes the release of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy and is ready to conduct in-depth discussions with the USG and the policy communities, so as to promote the shared interests of Taiwan and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region”, such a tweet is unlikely to result in any great affection for the Kuomintang from either the United States government or policy community.

If Chairman Chu insists on visiting the United States in the coming months, a successful trip would be one that focuses on US-based Kuomintang voters and donors, rather than on US decisionmakers.

Finally, the third bit of bad news for the Kuomintang was the announcement by the Tsai Ing-wen government that it will remove the import ban on food products grown in Japan’s Fukushima region. The announcement was immediately criticized by the Kuomintang, but there is little the Kuomintang can do to stop the lifting of the ban. The Democratic Progressive Party and Tsai government executed a brilliant strategy prior to the referendum on ractopamine pork that successfully convinced voters the removal of the ractopamine pork import ban was crucial to Taiwan’s ability to enhance trade relations with other countries, and, is likely to be successful in recycling this argument for ending the Fukushima food ban. The Kuomintang posted on Facebook that Foreign Minister Joseph Wu should commit to resign if Taiwan fails to obtain entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Given how long multilateral trade negotiations typically take, it is unlikely that Taiwan’s CPTPP entry negotiations will be completed by May 2024 when the Tsai government’s term ends. Perhaps the Kuomintang expects to lose the next presidential election and for Foreign Minister Wu to continue in his job until a date years from now.

This author has frequently said that the path to the Kuomintang’s electoral success in Taiwan does not go through Washington DC (and it certainly does not go through Tokyo). Currently, the Kuomintang has low popularity in Taiwan, an international image problem, and has proven unable in recent years to challenge President Tsai’s excellent image in the United States and worldwide. If the Kuomintang wants to receive a welcome reception in Washington DC, it will occur if the Kuomintang does well in this year’s local election or looks likely to win the 2024 presidential election, and not before. As General George S. Patton famously once said, “Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser”. Words the Kuomintang should remember when dealing with Americans.