时论广场》炒作大陆资讯战 对台湾民主的轻蔑（方恩格 Ross Darrell Feingold）

资讯战。（示意图／shutterstock）

在上届（2018年）地方选举日的前两周，自由时报集团旗下的英文报系《台北时报》出现了一篇文章，其中引用了内政部警政署刑事警察局官员的话，强调来自中国的金援可能操纵着台湾的选举：「中国政府疑似透过数个犯罪集团与其渠道，向台湾某些亲中的政党与团体提供约新台币350亿元（约11.3亿美元）的政治宣传金，以影响台湾的九合一选举结果。」

近日联系相关单位，询问此文所载之金额是否属实。然而调查局、警政署都说没有这项情资，《台北时报》纯系揣测之词。而这段揣测之词却迅速成为了许多知名外国学者、智库在论述台湾政治、两岸关系以及中国资讯战等相关议题上趋之若鹜引用的金句。

全球台湾研究中心首先在2019年10月发表了一份引用此文的研究报告之后，接二连三有未来学院数位智能实验室、知名资料分析公司Graphika、国际共和学会、布鲁金斯研究院、大西洋理事会、哈佛大学甘迺迪学院、美国陆军大学出版社、美国海军陆战队出版社等也都引用了《台北时报》的文字。

随着11月26日地方选举的到来，国际报章之间再度见到不少海外专家与学者提到中共以资讯战手法介入台湾的选举。如果国民党胜出，我们亦可预见会有人将此结果归咎于中国对台的资讯作战与宣传操弄影响了选票。

笔者认为这对台湾的民主进程是一种轻蔑的推论，因为此说法不但未能提出证明中国资讯战操作如何带动、影响台湾选民投票的实际步骤与证据来防止其所造成的影响，也忽略了一个现实要素：观看2018年地方选举的投票结果，与其说是中国资讯战的结果，更可能是因为当时台湾选民并不想把票投给民进党或其候选人。

另外还有一个需要考虑的事实是，在2018年11月地方选举民进党大败后，2020年1月总统与立委选举中民进党却压倒性胜出了。中国既然在2018年使用了资讯战操作台湾选举结果，却为何未在2020年同样进行此项操作？难道短短时间之内，他们的资讯战功力已弱化？

出于好奇，笔者以「台币350亿」为关键字搜寻了2018年11月地方选举前的相关新闻。搜出的两笔新闻如下：

一、2018年7月16日，《天下杂志》报导，根据2014年地方选举的数据，估计候选人的地方选举总支出为新台币348亿元。假设此数据属实，那么《台北时报》这篇文章所指，中共在台注入的新台币350亿元的选举开支，在整场地方选举的比例上根本超过了100%，发生的可能性微乎其微。此外，这笔巨款也不可能逃过台湾当局的注意。事实上在2018年选举期间，因违反政治献金法规所被起诉案例，例如爱国同心会成员张秀叶等人，被控涉及违法的金额跟这350亿天差地远。

二、2018年10月24日《镜周刊》的一篇报导，其中提到，据警方估计，2018年地方选举的地下赌盘下注的总金额上看台币350亿元，尽管绝大多数是由台湾人下注，其中仍不乏来自中国的赌金。当然，基于这样说来自中国的资金因而参与了台湾的选举不失逻辑，但要直接将之归结这全台累计起来的全数赌金是来自中共操纵台湾选举的资金，未免过于牵强。

笔者已预见可能有读者会反驳，确实有种种迹象指出中国在台湾散布假消息，相对之下，指出中国花费台币350亿来干涉台湾选举，无论数字正确与否，是台湾所能做出的一种策略上的反击。或许也有不少民众会认为台湾应该要与「抗中保台」的外国智库保持友好的关系，不要直接指正他们比较好；又或者也有人说，因为《中国时报》被抹红，此文不值一读。

然而对台湾而言，中国针对台湾的资讯战攻击确实可能造成了国家安全威胁，但来自台湾内外、针对中国资讯战所制造出的不实讯息，对于台湾的安全加不了分，可能只会让某些政客在炒作此议题时或学者在撰写此议题上加分罢了。

（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席）

英文全文

Taiwan Local Election Subversion: Who Benefits From Fake News?

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

“It is suspected that organized crime syndicates are a primary conduit for the Chinese government to funnel an estimated NT$35 billion (US$1.13 billion) in financial support to pro-China organizations and political parties to run propaganda campaigns in an attempt to subvert the nine-in-one elections, they said.”

This appeared in a Taipei Times (part of the Liberty Times media group) article published on November 15, 2018 prior to Taiwan’s local elections on November 24 that year, and cites officials at the Ministry of the Interior's National Police Agency Criminal Investigation Bureau as claiming this is the amount of money China will spend to subvert the election.

This past week the China Times asked both the Ministry of the Interior National Police Administration, and the Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau, about the dollar amount cited in the Taipei Times article. Their reply was that they have no such intelligence, and that the Taipei Times report is speculation.

What the Taipei Times wrote later appeared in multiple research reports, commentaries, and books authored by foreign scholars about Taiwan politics, China-Taiwan relations, and China’s information (or disinformation) operations directed at Taiwan. As sometimes happens in the academic world, once reputable scholars cite something, it then appears elsewhere without further fact checking.

A research report was published in October 2019 by the Global Taiwan Institute cites the Taipei Times article. Subsequently, the Global Taiwan Institute research report was cited in, among other publications, a research report jointly authored by Institute for the Future’s Digital Intelligence Lab, Graphika and the International Republican Institute, a research report published by The Brookings Institution, a research report published by the Harvard University Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, a commentary published by the United States Army University Press Military Review, and a book published by the United States Marine Corps Press”.

With Taiwan’s local elections upcoming on November 26, foreign language media and overseas scholars again produce large amounts of commentary about Taiwan politics and China’s information campaigns directed at Taiwan. If the Chinese Nationalist Party does well and the Democratic Progressive Party does poorly, no doubt many foreign language analyses will blame Chinese information operations.

This author finds such analysis patronizing to Taiwan’s democracy. Usually, those making such claims offer little evidence to prove China’s information operations influence Taiwan voter decisions. It ignores the reality that voters might have simply liked a non-Democratic Progressive Party candidate more, or disliked the Democratic Progressive Party more, than the other choices. It also ignores the fact that not long after the November 2018 local election, in January 2020 the Democratic Progressive Party was extraordinarily successful in the presidential and legislative elections. If China could so successfully subvert the 2018 local election, it is not plausible China’s subversion skills would deteriorate so quickly.

Out of curiosity, this author searched open-source information for election related references to NTD35,000,000,000 in the period prior to the November 2018 local election.

On July 16, 2018, Commonwealth Magazine published a report that, based on data from the 2014 local election, estimated total local election spending by candidates to be NTD34,800,000,000. Assuming the Commonwealth Magazine report is accurate, an additional NTD35,000,000,000 in election spending injected by China would be obvious in the form of advertisements, candidate paraphernalia, rallies, etc. Recipients of this enormous amount of funding would come to the attention of the authorities and be prosecuted for various violations of applicable laws. In fact, the few prosecutions that occurred for violations of the Political Donations Act in the 2018 election, such as the prosecution of Zhang Xiuye, involve relatively small amounts of money.

Closer to when the Taipei Times article claimed China would spend NTD35,000,000,000 to subvert the 2018 local election, a Mirror Magazine report published on October 24, 2018 cites police as estimating NTD35,000,000,000 will be wagered on Taiwan’s 2018 local election, some of which wagers came from bettors in China (though the vast majority was wagered by people in Taiwan). Of course, money wagered by China-based betters is not the same as money spent by the Chinese government to subvert the election.

This author expects this commentary to be criticized. Some will say that because China does in fact target Taiwan with disinformation, the accuracy of the allegation as to the amount spent (NTD35,000,000,000) to subvert the 2018 local elections is irrelevant. Some might say that Taiwan must maintain good relations with influential think tanks and scholars in the United States who are “Anti-China, Save Taiwan” regardless of the shortcomings in their commentaries. Some might say this commentary should be ignored because it is published in the China Times, a media often accused of being pro-China.

China’s information operations directed at Taiwan are certainly a danger to Taiwan’s national security. However, inaccurate information about China’s information operations, whether it originates in Taiwan or outside Taiwan, and which appears to benefit certain politicians or scholars, even if not an equivalent danger to Taiwan’s national security as China’s information operations, does not make Taiwan safer either.