时论广场》颠覆台湾大选：谁从假讯息中受益？（方恩格）

内政部长林右昌（左二）出席「第16任总统副总统暨第11届立法委员选举治安维护联合指挥所」揭牌仪式，林致词表示，揭牌活动除宣示贯彻维护选举治安决心，再次强调「阻绝境外势力、资金介入选举」、「杜绝假讯息干扰、影响选举公平」、「严查贿选、断绝赌盘」和「防止暴力、严密维安」等4项重点工作。（张铠乙摄）

「法务部调查局查获非法资金110亿新台币。这笔境外资金被用来资助特定的候选人，试图影响1月13日的总统大选。」一篇于10月27日发表在《台北时报》的文章中如此描述，并援引了调查局官员的警告，指出有境外势力正在利用远程资助、网络博彩和认知战来影响明年的总统和立委选举。文章进一步声称，法务部「详细说明了这笔境外资金的使用方式，包括透过台商向候选人捐款、为寺庙慈善活动捐款、使用虚拟帐户按赞特定候选人的贴文，以及透过未注册的银行或加密货币将资金移转给候选人。

这篇文章的写法给人的感觉是，法务部调查局没收了由中国大陆汇入台湾用于影响大选的新台币110亿元。这让笔者想起2018年11月台湾地方选举前夕一篇刊登在《台北时报》上的文章，该文称「组织性犯罪集团疑似是中国政府用来金援亲中组织和政党新台币350亿的主要渠道；这笔资金也被用来开展宣传活动，以试图颠覆九合一选举的结果。」

笔者在去年地方选举前的一篇评论中解释说，媒体曾向警政署和调查局询问2018年《台北时报》文章中提到的金额，然而他们回复并没有这方面的情报，《台北时报》的报导纯属揣测。不幸的是，许多外国学者引用《台北时报》的文章，作为中国花费新台币350亿影响2018年台湾地方选举的证据，尽管这件事并没有发生。事实可能是，350亿可能就是2018年地方选举的赌注。

如今，在2024年总统大选之前，某些媒体再次放出中国将花费巨额资金影响台湾选举的消息。为什么媒体（和外国人）相信中国大陆会在台湾选举上投入如此大的资金？有几个可能的原因。

首先，这与一些人的看法是一致的，那就是中国实际上对谁赢得总统大选或获得立法院多数席次有所偏好，并且中国会不惜一切代价帮助该政党，包括投入大量资金。假使这件事情属实，那么从明显增加的电视或公车上的广告、宣传候选人的看板数量便可以看出这一点；但对这些人来说，事实为何似乎不是那么重要。

其次，有些人认为，任何投票给某特定政党的人都是被中国洗脑的，是中国认知战的受害者，或者是支持统一的。虽然对选民做出如此广泛的概括是不民主的，但这是某些媒体、评论家或学者对台湾选民所做出的概括评论。

第三，这是民进党害怕万一失去总统宝座、立法院多数席次，或两者兼失兼失时的主动防御措施，而这种失败可以用「中国花费大量资金来影响选举」的认知战来给他们找台阶下。

事实上，调查局最近没收这110亿的来源，大概就是每天发生的这些活动，包括企业家试图在银行体系外隐藏他们在中国大陆或台湾赚取的资金、使用地下汇款服务、赌徒洗钱的资金，或有组织犯罪透过一系列非法活动赚取的资金。当然，在被没收的110亿新台币中，有一部分可能会是2024年选举的赌盘。无论如何，中国大陆不太可能试图花费110亿来影响台湾的总统和立委选举。

根据我们在台湾观察的经验，这次选举和其他选举一样，都会出现假新闻、网军散播假讯息以及其他影响选民投票的行为。经验也告诉我们，台湾所有的政党都试图使用这些工具，而当他们这样做时，幕后指使者不一定是中国大陆。王立强事件甚至也有可能重演；亦即在大选前几周，有人会以毫无根据的言论干涉选举。过去4年对王立强所谓「间谍头目」向心夫妇的起诉失败，给我们所有人一个教训，那就是在有任何指控干涉选举时，我们应该要求提供足够的证据。

归根结底，台湾选民是明智的，他们会透过民主程序做出决定。无论是胜方或败方，都应该尊重选民的意愿。

（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席）

Taiwan National Election Subversion: Who Benefits From Fake News?

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

“MJIB seizes NT$11bn in illegal funds. Offshore funding is being used to finance attempts to influence the Jan. 13 elections, including funneling money to select candidates”.

This appeared in a Taipei Times (part of the Liberty Times media group) article published on October 27, 2023, and cites officials at the Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau as warning that foreign actors are using remote funding, Internet betting and cognitive warfare to influence next year’s presidential and legislative elections. The article further alleges that the Ministry of Justice “detailed how offshore funding is being used, including making donations to candidates via Taiwanese businesspeople, contributing to temple charity events, using dummy accounts to “like” specific candidates’ posts and funneling funds to candidates through unregistered banks or cryptocurrency.”

The way this article is written gives the impression that Taiwan’s Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau confiscated NT$11,000,000,000 that the mainland remitted into Taiwan to spend on election influence activities.

It reminds this author of the article that appeared in the Taipei Times in November 2018, prior to Taiwan’s local election that year, which claimed “It is suspected that organized crime syndicates are a primary conduit for the Chinese government to funnel an estimated NT$35 billion (US$1.13 billion) in financial support to pro-China organizations and political parties to run propaganda campaigns in an attempt to subvert the nine-in-one elections.”

In a commentary prior to last year’s local election, this author explained that the China Times asked both the Ministry of the Interior National Police Administration, and the Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau, about the dollar amount cited in the Taipei Times article in 2018. Their reply was that they have no such intelligence, and that the Taipei Times report was speculation.

Unfortunately, many foreign scholars cited the Taipei Times article as proof that China spent NT$35,000,000,000 to influence the 2018 local elections, even though no such thing happened. The truth is probably that NT$35,000,000,000 is the amount gambled on the 2018 local elections.

And now, prior to the 2024 local elections, certain media are again repeating accusations about the amounts of money China will spend to influence an election in Taiwan.

Why do media (and foreigners) believe that China is spending such large amounts of money on Taiwan’s election? There are several possible reasons.

First, it’s consistent with some people’s belief that China actually has a preference for who wins the presidency or obtains a majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, and that China will do anything to help that party including the expenditure of a large amount of money. It doesn’t matter that the amount of money allegedly spent by China would be so large that it would be obvious by an increase in the amount of advertising on television or on buses, or the number of banners and billboards promoting candidates.

Second, it’s consistent with some people’s belief that anyone who votes for certain political parties is brainwashed by China, a victim of China’s cognitive warfare, or is pro-unification. Although it is undemocratic to make such broad generalizations about voters, it is a generalization that certain media, commentators or scholars will make about Taiwan voters.

Third, it’s a pro-active defensive measure in case the Democratic Progressive Party loses either the presidency, its majority in the Legislative Yuan, or loses both. Such loses will be explained by China having spent large amounts of money to influence the election.

The truth is probably that the source of this NT$11,000,000,000 recently confiscated by the Investigation Bureau is the kind of activities that unfortunately occur every day. This includes businesspeople trying to hide from the banking system money they have earned in either the mainland or Taiwan and who use "underground" remittance services, funds spent by gamblers, or funds earned by organized crime in a range of illegal activities.

Certainly, some of the gambling money in the confiscated NT$11,000,000,000 is money gambled on the 2024 election. Regardless, it is unlikely China attempted to spend NT$11,000,000,000 to influence the presidential and legislative elections.

From our experience in Taiwan, we know that this election like other elections will have fake news, “online warriors” spreading disinformation, and other actions to influence how voters vote. Our experience also tells us that all of Taiwan’s political parties attempt to use these tools, and when they do, it is not necessarily the mainland who is behind it. There might even be a repeat of the Wang Liqiang incident, where weeks before the election, someone makes unsubstantiated claims of election interference. The failed prosecution of Wang Liqiang’s alleged “spymaster” Xiang Xin over the past four years is a lesson to all of us that we should demand sufficient evidence when allegations about election interference are made.

Ultimately, Taiwan’s voters are wise, and they will make their decisions in a democratic process. Both the winning side, and the losing side, should respect the will of the voters.