时论广场》介选？ 不要侮辱选民的智商（方恩格）
（示意合成图／资料照）
台湾的新总统和立法院选举已进入最后几天。选举基本上是和平的，而且失败者也似乎会尊重选举结果，这一事实表明了台湾民主的力量。尽管外国记者和外国学者经常用「充满活力的民主社会」来形容台湾，但笔者更喜欢用「成熟民主社会」，因为台湾的民主早已从「充满活力」的阶段迈入了「成熟」的阶段。
尽管台湾是一个成熟的民主社会，但在投票前的最后几天，仍有一些事情值得关注。
一、是否会再次发生影响选民的类似「五月天」事件？一些选民怀疑，有关中国大陆试图逼迫摇滚乐团「五月天」发表支持两岸统一的声明的准确性。此事传出几天后，我们只知道匿名官员向外国媒体提出了这一说法，而中国方面对此予以否认。台湾政府要么拿出中国试图逼迫五月天的证据，要么如果整个事件是旨在干扰选举的假新闻，那么幕后黑手和发表该报导的外国媒体就应该道歉。
五月天事件让许多人想起2020年大选前几周的王立强事件。4年后，王立强所称收受贿赂干涉台湾大选的指控仍未得到证实，而王所指的「间谍头子」向心在蔡政府当局4年来的拚命搜罗下，也没有被定罪。
不幸的是，为了赢得选举而对「中国介选」作出不实指控，有些人认为是可以的。希望大选前最后一周，不再发生此类事件。
二、政客、记者和媒体专家会称这是选民一生中最重要的选举吗？在民主国家，每次选举总有人声称这次选举将是选民一生中最重要的一次。《经济学人》、《日经亚洲》等外媒已将这次选举称为今年最重要的选举之一。
现实情况是，在民主国家每次选举都是重要的选举，只有透过高投票率才能维护民主。称一场选举比过去或未来的选举更重要，或恐吓选民投票，都是愚蠢的。希望总统候选人和政党、媒体、学者能够鼓励选民投票，但不必愚蠢地声称这次选举是最重要的一次选举。
同样，人们应该避免声称台湾选举是今年世界上最重要的选举之一。2024年，至少有76个国家和大约一半的全世界人口将参加投票。在亚太地区，孟加拉、印度和印尼将举行选举，这3场选举对于亚洲的安全和经济发展与台湾的选举一样重要。
三、美国政府会干预吗？白宫国家安全委员会战略沟通协调人约翰‧柯比（John Kirby）在2024年1月5日发表的访谈中表示，美国希望台湾能举行自由、公正和透明的选举。尽管笔者认为，美国在整个竞选过程中已经非常明确地表示，美国更希望民进党的赖清德当选总统，但希望在大选前的最后几天，美国政府官员不会就台湾选举发表更多言论以免干预台湾的选情。
四、美国学者或前政府官员会介入吗？至少有一位美国学者葛来仪（Bonnie Glaser）已经在竞选活动中扮演了有争议的角色。本周还会有美国知名人士抵达台湾影响选情吗？美国学者会不会说出支持赖清德的话？这些人肯定会在选举后提供大量分析，但希望在选举前的最后几天他们不会试图干预选情。
五、最后，根据《公职人员选举罢免法》第53条、《总统副总统选举罢免法》第52条规定，投票日前10日内不得对民调发表评论。中央选举委员会和检察官是否会在选举后10天内对违反《选罢法》的人提出刑事控诉？笔者定期接受国外媒体访问，如果我告诉外国观众最近的民调结果，我真的会面临刑事指控吗？这是一条愚蠢的法律，应该废除。台湾选民的成熟度值得更多尊重，希望未来「冷静日」能缩短到一天。
（作者为美国共和党前亚太区主席）
Don’t Insult Voters’ Intelligence
By Ross Darrell Feingold
Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad
@RossFeingold
Taiwan has reached the final days before elections for a new President and Legislative Yuan. The fact that an election is largely peaceful, and the likelihood that the losers will respect the result, demonstrates the strength of Taiwan’s democracy. Although foreign journalists and foreign scholars often describe Taiwan as a “vibrant democracy”, this author prefers “mature democracy” because Taiwan’s democracy long ago passed from a “vibrant” stage to a “mature” stage.
Although Taiwan is a mature democracy, there are still things to watch in the final days before the election.
1. Will there be another “Mayday” incident to influence voters? Some voters doubt the accuracy of the allegations that the mainland attempted to force rock band Mayday to make a statement that they support Taiwan’s unification with China. Days after this incident made the news, we only know that anonymous Taiwan officials made this claim to foreign media, and, China has denied it. The Taiwan government should either produce the evidence that China tried to blackmail Mayday, or, if the entire incident is fake news meant to interfere in the election, the persons behind it and the foreign media that published the story should apologize.
The Mayday incident reminds many of the Wang Liqiang incident in the weeks prior to the 2020 election. Four years later, Wang’s allegations that he was paid to interfere in Taiwan’s election have yet to be proven, and Wang’s alleged “spy boss” Xiang Xin was not convicted of any crimes in Taiwan despite Taiwan authorities desperate efforts over four years.
It is unfortunate that some people think it is OK to make false allegations of China’s interference in order to win votes. Hopefully, this kind of incident will not occur again in the final week before the election.
2. Will politicians, journalists, and media pundits call this the most important election of voters’ lives? In democratic countries, in every election there is always someone who claims that the election will be the most important one in a voter’s life. Already, foreign media such as the Economist and Nikkei Asia are calling the election one of the most important elections this year.
The reality is that in a democracy, every election is an important election. It is only through high voter turn out that democracy can be preserved. It is silly to call one election more important than a past or future election, or to scare voters into voting. Hopefully, the presidential candidates and political parties, as well as media and scholars, will encourage voters to vote, but without making silly claims that this election is the most important one.
Similarly, people should avoid claiming that Taiwan’s election is one of the most important ones in the world this year. In 2024, at least 76 countries and approximately half the world’s population will be voting. In the Asia Pacific region, elections will be held in Bangladesh, India and Indonesia, and these three elections are just as important for the security and economic development of Asia as is Taiwan’s election.
3. Will the United States government intervene? In an interview published on January 5, 2024, US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby said the US hopes for free, fair and transparent elections in Taiwan.
Although this author believes the United States has made it abundantly clear throughout the election campaign that the U.S. prefers William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party is elected president, hopefully in the final days before the election no US government officials makes additional statements about the Taiwan election that might be election interference.
4. Will United States scholars or former government officials intervene? At least one U.S. scholar, Bonnie Glaser, has already played a controversial role in the election campaign. Will a prominent American arrive in Taiwan this week to influence voters? Will scholars in the U.S. say things that indicate support for William Lai?
Such persons will certainly provide lots of analysis post-election, but hopefully in these last few days pre-election they will not try to interfere.
5. Finally, according to the Public Officials Election And Recall Act Article 53, and the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act Article 52, commenting about polls is not allowed within ten days of the voting day. Will the Central Election Commission and prosecutors bring criminal charges against violators of the “no poll” law within ten days of the election? This author is periodically interviewed by foreign media; would I really face criminal charges if I tell a foreign audience what the most recent polls were? This is a silly law, and should be eliminated. The maturity of Taiwan’s voters deserves more respect, and hopefully in the future the “cooling off day” will be reduced to one day.