时论广场》瓦格纳集团叛变与台湾的关联（方恩格）

瓦格纳集团兵变震撼世界。图为瓦格纳集团人员撤离俄南部军区总部所在区域。（新华社）

近日，俄罗斯瓦格纳集团雇佣军发生兵变，国外和台湾媒体纷纷发表文章，试图解释台湾可以从这次事件中得到什么教训。这并不奇怪，因为在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，媒体报导、学术文章和世界各国政府的新闻稿中出现了无数乌克兰与台湾的比较。

这些评论试图表明台湾可以从瓦格纳集团叛变中汲取教训，其中包括美国智库外交关系委员会的文章「普里格津拯救了台湾吗？」；《日本时报》的一篇报导「失败的俄罗斯叛变为中国提供了宝贵的教训」；印度《第一邮报》问「瓦格纳叛变是否让中国对侵略台湾持谨慎态度？」；《台湾+》报导了「瓦格纳集团叛变与对台湾的教训」和「瓦格纳集团：普丁的权力、派系斗争和政治斗争」。

上周访问台北的战略与国际研究中心学者贺博然在推特上写道：「从美丽的台北跟大家问好，这里没有企图武装叛乱的雇佣兵。」笔者不清楚为什么他要在推特上刻意指出这一点。

其中许多分析似乎都表明，中国领导人习近平将更关心对台湾采取军事行动。但事实真的是这样吗？上述文章中，专家的评论都对「瓦格纳集团叛变后，中国不太可能对台湾采取军事行动」的说法保持谨慎并提出理由。

美国外交关系委员会的文章称，「上周末发生的事件是中国独裁者考虑下一步行动时的一个警示」。然而，没有理由相信中国领导层会面临类似的军队兵变。如果台湾人民希望中国发生这样的兵变，这可能会转移人们对维护台湾安全所必须严肃面对的注意力。

《日本时报》记者写道，瓦格纳集团叛变「凸显了战时混乱会如何削弱强大的领导人」，因此「专家淡化了中国领导人在不久的将来下令攻击民主台湾的可能性」。这种分析的盲点，在于似乎颠倒了事件的顺序。就像俄罗斯一样，中国会首先对台湾发动战争，即使存在国内混乱的风险。如果人们希望中国不会攻击台湾，是奠基于入侵后中国会有混乱的风险，这也可能会转移人们对台湾安全的注意力。

《第一邮报》的结论是，瓦格纳集团的普里格津「可能帮了台湾一个忙」，因为「他向习近平展示了入侵的风险」。台湾民众如果认为瓦格纳集团叛变意味着习近平（或其继任者）不会对台湾采取军事行动，即使是如果台湾采取诸如将国名改为「台湾共和国」，或采取其他行动将台独正常化，那是非常愚蠢的想法。

一位美国学者在《台湾+》节目中表示，习近平「将不得不质疑自己的圈子是否安全」。最有可能的是，习近平一直怀疑他的圈子是否安全，尽管去年10月二十大之后，最近的领导层变动和今年3月的「两会」在短期内缓解了部分风险。无论如何，没有理由相信习近平目前认为自己不安全，并且这种风险将成为不对台湾采取军事行动的理由。

至于那位学者指出台湾没有雇佣兵企图武装叛乱，笔者并不清楚他想表达什么观点，也许只是想开个玩笑。笔者更希望来访的外国学者能够以严肃的态度来对待台湾的安全局势，而不是把台湾当作一个吃喝玩乐的地方。

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰前不久，及战争开始后的一段时间内，台湾政府官员强调「台湾不是乌克兰」。当军队和人民表现出他们可以勇敢地保卫自己的国家时，台湾又希望和乌克兰做对照并支持乌克兰。

笔者更倾向于这些评论者暗示让台湾就是台湾。政府官员、媒体和学者应该抵制将台湾与乌克兰或世界其他局势进行比较的冲动，而应关注如何使台湾繁荣且安全。

（作者为前美国共和党亚太区主席）

Trying to Find Wagner Group Mutiny Relevance for Taiwan

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Twitter: @RossFeingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

The recent mutiny by the Wagner Group mercenary army in Russia resulted in many articles in foreign and Taiwan media that try to explain what, if any, are the lessons for Taiwan from the incident. This is no surprise given that after Russia invaded Ukraine, an endless number of Ukraine vs Taiwan comparisons have appeared in media reports, scholarly articles, and press releases from governments worldwide.

These commentaries trying to show there are lessons for Taiwan from the Wanger Group mutiny include the American think tank Council on Foreign Relations which asked “Did Prigozhin Just Save Taiwan?”, a report in The Japan Times “Failed Russia mutiny offers China valuable lesson on military missions”, India’s Firstpost media which asked “Has the Wagner Mutiny Made China Cautious of Invading Taiwan?”, and Taiwan Plus which reported on “The Wagner Group's Rebellion and Lessons for Taiwan” and “Wagner’s Coup: Putin's Power, Factional Struggles and Global Implications”.

Brian Hart （贺博然）, a scholar from The Center for Strategic and International Studies visiting Taipei last week wrote on Twitter “Hello from beautiful Taipei, where there are no mercenaries attempting an armed rebellion.” It is unclear to this author why he would need to point this out on Twitter.

Many of these analyses seemed to make the point that China’s Xi Jinping will be more concerned about taking military action against Taiwan. But is that really the case? Some of the comments by the experts in the above articles is a reason to be cautious about any claims the Wagner Group mutiny makes China less likely to take military action against Taiwan.

The Council of Foreign Relations article alleges that “the events of the past weekend are a cautionary tale as the Chinese dictator contemplates his next moves”. However, there is no reason to believe China’s leadership would face a similar mutiny by its military. If people in Taiwan wish to dream that such a mutiny might occur in China, this could divert attention from the serious decisions that are necessary to maintain Taiwan’s security.

The Japan Times reporter wrote that the Wagner Group mutiny “highlighted how wartime chaos can weaken powerful leaders” and thus, “experts have played down the possibility of China’s leaders ordering an attack on democratic Taiwan in the near future”. The problem with this analysis is that it appears to reverse the order of events. Like Russia did, China would first initiate the war with Taiwan, even if there is a risk of domestic chaos. If people wish to dream that China will not attack Taiwan because there is a risk of chaos in China after the invasion occurs, this could also divert attention from the serious decisions that are necessary to maintain Taiwan’s security.

The Firstpost report concluded that Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin “may have done Taiwan a favor” because “he has shown Xi Jinping the risks of an invasion”. It would be very silly for people in Taiwan to assume that the Wagner Group mutiny means Xi Jinping (or his successors) will not take military action against Taiwan, especially if Taiwan were to take actions such as change the country name to “Republic of Taiwan” and take other actions to formalize Taiwan independence.

On Taiwan Plus, an American scholar said Xi Jinping “will have to question whether his own circle is secure”. Most likely, Xi Jinping has always questioned whether or not his circle is secure, though the recent leadership changes following the 20th Party Congress last October and the “Two Sessions” this part March mitigated some of this risk in the near term. Regardless, there is no reason to believe that Xi Jinping currently believes his position is insecure, and that such a risk will be a reason not to take military action against Taiwan.

As for the scholar who noted that there are no mercenaries attempting an armed rebellion in Taiwan, it wasn’t clear to this author what point the scholar wanted to make, other than perhaps an attempt to make a joke. This author would prefer that visiting foreign scholars treat Taiwan’s security situation with the seriousness it deserves, and not treat Taiwan as a place to have a good time （吃喝玩乐）when visiting.

Shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine, and for a period of time after the war began, Taiwan government officials emphasized that “Taiwan is not Ukraine”. When the military and people showed they can bravely defend their country, Taiwan wanted the comparison to be made and became a Ukraine supporter.

This author prefers that these commentators imply let Taiwan be Taiwan. Government officials, media, and scholars should resist the urge to compare Taiwan to Ukraine or other situations around the world, and instead focus on what needs to be done to make Taiwan prosperous and safe.