时论广场》吴钊燮欧洲行与台湾牌（方恩格Ross Darrell Feingold）

外交部长吴钊燮。（资料照/外交部提供）

外交部长吴钊燮即将展开欧洲行程，这势必会引起国内外媒体的广泛关注。在此祝福吴部长接下来的行程一切顺利，别再碰到如原本罗马行程那样突然无法与会的情况。他原定要到罗马参加的「对华政策跨国议会联盟」（IPAC Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China），但后来宣布因故改为以视讯方式参与，此会议可说是各国相聚，讨论针对中国的火烤大会，或许是因为义大利政府突然惊觉到，若让吴部长参与此活动可能会引发很大的争议，同时受到中国施压，逼得义大利不得不表态。一直以来由于中华民国驻梵蒂冈教廷大使馆位于在罗马市区内，台湾对于梵蒂冈相关之所有外交行程（如总统参访教廷等活动）都需透过义大利官方协助安排，这当然也让中国大陆多了不少责备义大利的理由。

台湾媒体爱用的一个词汇「外交突破」想必也会充斥各大报章，然而外国议员会见台湾政府官员，无论是在台湾或是台湾政府官员出访他国，都不是一件稀奇的事情，那么到底如何才能达到名符其实的「外交突破」呢？笔者认为若吴部长在此次出访行程中，能公开会晤他国政府与他的职等级别相当的部长级官员（非议员，如外交部长或其他同职级的部长），才能达到外交上的对等沟通，这才会是真正的外交突破。

外交部长亲自出访，而不是像以往那样通过视讯与会，确实可以说是一个外交突破，然而我们也别忘了，以台湾同职级的部长级官员而言，过去的部长们访问欧洲、公开活动的先例也有很多。

依吴部长这次公告的出访行程看来，他将会在当地讨论提出与欧洲国家的双边贸易和投资机会。然而吴部长的专长在于外交，而非贸易投资。而东欧、中欧小国作为台湾公司出口或投资目的地的潜力有限，我们可以期待的是，或许他可以成就一些国营事业或国有民营企业在当地开设新的项目企画或者设立办事处。我们必须擦亮眼睛，看清楚此行的政治目的远大于商业目的。如果这次出访真的是以经济、贸易为导向，应该由台湾的经济部相关首长出访更为合理。

中国大陆当然也会对此做出回应、再度对台湾施压，如近来频频上演的军事演习、贸易报复、禁止台湾产品的进口，或对在中国的台商公司加强监管，进而缩小台湾的国际空间、说服中华民国仅存的邦交国转而承认中华人民共和国等。对于中国大陆的这些举动，台湾政府应做足准备，研拟好措施来应对。

另一个看点在于国民党将会对吴钊燮的外交之旅做出什么样的反应。时值国民党宣告要重新开设华府办事处，这下外交版面又只能拱手让给民进党。更重要的是，各国议会「对华政策跨国议会联盟」的成员普遍与台湾政府的关系良好，因此国民党想要提升在美的正面形象，又面临着更大的挑战。同一时间，吴部长致力于提升台湾国际形象、寻求国际间对台湾的支持，这也利于民进党在2022年地方选举与2024年的大选。

在吴钊燮这次的出访行程或许会占据各大版面，在欧洲当地的媒体是否有相对应的大篇幅报导，并且如何被报导也是值得关注，对当地政客而言，打出这张「台湾牌」邀请吴部长，除了表达对台湾的友好之外，在地政客的政治动机与对台的外交政策也很值得研究。

即使欧洲议会日前通过了「欧台政治合作报告」，欧盟与欧洲各国政府仍然坚定着他们的「一中政策」，也就是说，目前为止台湾在欧盟眼中仍然并非是一个主权独立的国家。我们要做好心理准备，要欧盟的对台政策能够转向，可能还需要一段时间。

（作者为美国共和党海外部亚太区前主席）

全文：

Foreign Minister Joseph Wu's upcoming trip to Europe will generate much domestic and global media coverage. That is assuming he makes the trip and the schedule doesn't further change; already the earlier plan that Foreign Minister Wu will attend the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China meeting in Italy has changed and instead of attending in person he might have to attend via videoconference. This change might be due to the reluctance of the Italian government to allow him to attend a public event in Rome critical of China especially as Italy already faces enormous pressure from China for actions Italy must take to facilitate the Republic of China embassy to the Holy See including presidential visits to Vatican City for significant events.

The true break through on this trip would be if Foreign Minister Wu publicly meets with government officials (rather than parliamentarians) who are the equivalent level of seniority such as the foreign or other minister. As of now it appears more likely Foreign Minister Wu will meet members of various countries parliaments. Foreign parliamentarians frequently meet with Taiwan government officials whether in Taipei or around the world thus this would not be a breakthrough.

As usual some in Taiwan will call this a breakthrough simply because Taiwan's foreign minister will visit Europe in person. However there are many precedents for Taiwan government ministers (or equivalents) to visit Europe and to hold public events even if it is a small breakthrough for the Foreign Minister to do so in person rather than by video.

Nominally some of the events will be about bilateral trade and investment opportunities. To the extent that the focus in the trade area one wonders why the foreign minister and not more relevant ministers such as from Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs are leading the Taiwan delegation. Minister Wu's expertise is diplomacy rather than trade and investment. Thus we shouldn't delude ourselves that the point of these events is political rather than business especially as small eastern and central European countries have limited potential as export or investment destinations for Taiwan companies. Be that as it may Taiwan's state owned or controlled companies are likely to announce plans for offices or other projects in these countries which again is more for political than business purposes.

There will be a response from China which might include the usual mix of pressures China attempts to use against Taiwan. This includes military exercises trade retaliation such as banning the import from Taiwan of various products or regulatory action against Taiwan companies in China and shrinking Taiwan's international space such as by persuading a remaining country with diplomatic relations to de-recognize the Republic of China and recognize the People's Republic of China. Hopefully Taiwan's government has planned sufficient counter measures to manage the after effect of whatever actions China takes.

One more thing to watch is the response from the Kuomintang. The timing of Foreign Minister Wu's trip will reduce news coverage of the Kuomintang's efforts to re-open a Washington DC office. More importantly the American congressmen who are members of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China have excellent relations with Foreign Minister Wu and the current Taiwan government which will only be enhanced by the upcoming events. Thus the Kuomintang faces an even greater challenge to give these American congressmen a message that will change their negative views about the Kuomintang.

As for the global media coverage of Foreign Minister Wu's trip to Europe it also important to keep in mind that such coverage is fleeting. The host organizations motivation to invite Foreign Minister Wu might be due to genuine friendship for Taiwan but there is also an element of playing a "Taiwan card" for domestic political reasons in their own countries. Foreign Minister Wu's motivation is to raise Taiwan's international profile and demonstrate foreign parliamentarian support for Taiwan but it will also be helpful to the Democratic Progressive Party especially with the imminent start of the 2022 local election and 2024 national election season. Ultimately though global media attention to Taiwan issues or Foreign Minister Wu's visit to Europe although important to us in Taiwan will be one among many issues in the international news during the days he is in Europe.

Perhaps the most important thing to watch is whether or not notwithstanding Foreign Minister Wu's visit the European Union (or individual governments) emphasize that they have not changed their "One China" policy and their political relationship with Taiwan. Taiwan people should be prepared for the reality that changes to European Union policies might still be a long time from changing and the European Union will continue to emphasize that Taiwan is not in their view a sovereign country.