方恩格快评》删Q的阿共阴谋论

2021年10月23日台中市第10届立委台中市第2选举区陈柏惟罢免案过关,陈柏惟上台表示,「我没有输」。(黄国峰摄)

如果说台中第二选区选民成功罢免立委陈柏惟,台湾人民应该能够达成共识的一件事,就是罢免程序有效。近年来,台湾举行了多次罢免投票,包括市长、市议员和立法委员。这些罢免有些成功了,有些则失败了,但几乎没有任何指控或证据表明可能有影响罢免投票结果的不当行为。可以理解,失败方的支持者感到失望,在某些情况下,失败方指责对方出于恶意原因罢免,但终究,法治和民主占了上风。陈柏惟罢免的高投票率重申了台湾选民参与民主的愿望。

台湾人不会同意的一件事是中国是否支持罢免。陈柏惟对中国的直言不讳,以及他对台独的主张,肯定会引起中国大陆的注意。甚至在计票过程中,也有媒体报导陈柏惟团队的资深成员李雨蓁在脸书上指称有计票违规行为,但台中市选举委员会对此予以否认。陈柏惟的支持者认为有投票违规行为的,可以研究一下美国2020年11月大选的经验,共和党选民和政客到现在仍然声称选举有不当行为。

国民党在2018年地方选举中获胜后,外国学者(他们对台湾的了解往往比他们想像的要少得多)开始重复指控国民党的成功是由于中国大陆对台湾选举的渗透。这些学者引用的例子包括对台湾候选人和政党的非法经济援助等指控,以及在中国制作的有利国民党和批评民进党的互联网内容。虽然在某种程度上中国大陆网民确实做了这些事情,但没有证据显示对岸的行动改变了台湾选民的投票行为。

事实上,国民党在2018年地方选举的成功,是因为当时对民进党领导的中央政府表现不满,选民不喜欢民进党的一些市长或县长候选人,以及几个公投议题当天也进行了投票,激发了想要表达对中央政府不满的选民。

当外国学者称中共可以如此轻易地操纵台湾选民的决定时,笔者怀疑他们是否对台湾政治发展一无所知,或者他们是否看不起台湾选民。

或许在未来几天,外媒报导或外国学者都会有类似的指控,称中国的渗透是台中第二立法选区选民罢免陈柏惟的原因。我们希望任何提出这一指控的人都能用证据来说话。

Chen Po-Wei Recall “Conspiracy” Theories

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

If there is one thing that Taiwan people should be able to agree on about the successful recall of Legislator Chen Po-wei by voters in Taichung’s second legislative constituency is that the recall process works. In recent years Taiwan has had several recall elections including for a mayor city councilors and legislators. Some of these recalls succeeded and some failed but there is little allegation (or proof) of any kind of wrongdoing that could affect the recall vote result. Understandably supporters on the losing side are disappointed and in some cases the losing side accuses the other side of bringing the recall for malicious reasons but ultimately the rule of law and democracy prevail. The high turnout for the Chen Po-wei recall reaffirms Taiwan voters desire to participate in democracy.

One thing people in Taiwan will not agree on is whether or not China was behind the recall. Chen Po-wei’s outspoken views on China and his advocacy for Taiwan’s independence certainly would attract China’s attention. Even during the vote counting media reported that Lee Yu-chen (李雨蓁) a senior member of Chen Po-wei’s team alleged on Facebook there are vote counting irregularities though the Taichung City Election Commission denied this. Chen Po-wei’s supporters who believe there are voting irregularities can study the experience of Republican voters and politicians in the United States who still allege wrongdoing in the November 2020 US election.

After the Kuomintang’s success in the 2018 local election foreign scholars (who often know far less about Taiwan than they think they do) began to repeat the allegation that that the Kuomintang’s success was due to China infiltration of Taiwan election. Examples these scholars cite include allegations of illegal financial assistance to candidates and political parties in Taiwan and Internet content produced in China that favors the Kuomintang and criticizes the Democratic Progressive Party. While China does do these things to some extent there is no proof that China’s actions changed Taiwan voter behavior.

In fact the Kuomintang’s success in the 2018 local elections was due to dissatisfaction at the time with the performance of the Democratic Progressive Party led central government voter dislike of some of the Democratic Progressive Party candidates for mayor or county executive and several referendum topics which were also voted on that day and energized voters who wanted to express their unhappiness with the central government.

When foreign scholars allege China can so easily manipulate Taiwan voter decisions this author wonders whether they are ignorant of Taiwan political developments or if they look down on Taiwan’s voters.

Perhaps in the coming days there will be similar allegations in foreign language reporting or by foreign scholars that China’s infiltration is why voters in Taichung’s second legislative constituency recalled Chen Po-wei. Let’s hope that anyone who makes this allegation can support it with evidence.

※以上言论不代表旺中媒体集团立场※