紐時賞析／情勢不樂觀…俄烏戰爭進入第三年 分析師：守住戰線是烏最佳狀況

乌克兰克拉莫托斯克的消防队员2月20日对抗因俄罗斯空袭而受损的净水厂大火。（纽约时报）

Ukraine’s Deepening Fog of War

俄乌战争情势 更加扑朔迷离

The forecasts are anything but optimistic: The best Ukraine can hope for in 2024, many Western officials and analysts say, is to simply hold the line.

预测绝对不乐观：许多西方官员与分析师表示，乌克兰在2024年可以期望的最佳状况，就是守住战线。

Only a year ago, Ukraine was brimming with confidence. It had defied expectations, staving off Russia’s attempt to take over the country. Western nations, buoyed by Ukraine’s success, promised aid to help Ukrainians break through Russian lines.

仅仅一年前，乌克兰正洋溢着信心。该国曾出乎意料，击退俄罗斯接管企图。西方国家受到乌克兰成功的鼓励，承诺援助以协助乌克兰人突破俄罗斯防线。

But the flow of much-needed weapons from allies was unpredictable and slow. Ukraine’s own domestic arms production was mired in bureaucracy, top military officials have said. And the command structure of the army was not changing quickly enough to manage a force that had expanded from 200,000 troops to nearly 1 million in a matter of months.

但是，盟邦提供的急需武器流量，既难以预测又缓慢。高层军事官员表示，乌克兰自己的国内军火生产陷入官僚主义泥沼。军队指挥架构改变得不够快，无法管理在几个月内从20万官兵扩大到近1百万的武力。

Those weaknesses, and some strategic battlefield missteps, stymied Ukraine’s widely telegraphed counteroffensive, which resulted in only marginal territorial gains. At the same time, Russia was fortifying its defensive lines, converting its economy to war production, conscripting hundreds of thousands of fighters and adjusting its strategy for renewed offensives this winter.

这些缺点和一些战略性战场失策，让乌克兰大肆宣扬的反攻陷入困境，结果只是微不足道的领土战果。在此同时，俄罗斯正在加强自己的防线，将经济转换为战时生产，征召数十万名战士，以及调整战略准备今年冬季恢复攻势。

Now, as the war enters its third year, leaders in Kyiv are trying to find a new path forward amid ferocious Russian assaults, while facing a series of daunting unknowns.

如今随着俄乌战争进入第三年，在俄罗斯猛烈的袭击之下，基辅领导人正在努力寻找一条新的前进道路，同时面临一连串让人气馁的未知。

Can its civilian leaders muster the will to enact a potentially unpopular mobilization plan to replenish its depleted forces? Can the military command and the civilian government mend the rifts that have divided them and that led to the recent firing of Ukraine’s top general?

文职领袖可否凝聚意志，制定可能不得民心的动员计划以补充耗尽的部队？军事指挥部与文人政府，可否修补让他们对立且导致最近乌克兰最高将领解职的裂痕？

Even as he presses the case for more Western support, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is starting to take steps to improve some of the systemic problems under his control.

总统泽伦斯基竭力争取更多西方援助之际，也开始采取行动，改善在他控制下的一些系统性问题。

For instance, Ukraine has added several command headquarters to oversee brigades more efficiently. And while the new top general, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, is a product of the Soviet military system, Zelenskyy has installed a younger generation of generals under him who he hopes will bring more innovation to the battlefield.

举例来说，乌克兰已增设几个指挥总部，以便更有效的监督各旅。虽然新任最高将领瑟尔斯基将军是苏联军事体系的产物，泽伦斯基已在他麾下安插年轻一代将领，希望他们把更多创新带到战场。

The minister of defense, Rustem Umerov, has vowed to accelerate the development of ammunition production in Ukraine. He has also introduced a new procurement process to replace a post-Soviet system that was slower and more susceptible to corruption.

国防部长乌梅洛夫誓言加快乌克兰的弹药制造发展。他也已经引进新的采购流程，以用来取代较慢、且较容易受到贪腐影响的后苏联系统。

文／Marc Santora 译／周辰阳