一通电话影响台美中关系 美准总统可能与赖清德通话？
▲ 2024美国总统大选将于11月5日登场。（图／路透）
● 方恩格（Ross Darrell Feingold）／前美国共和党海外部亚太区主席
美国将于11月5日举行总统选举，之后准总统将开始组成政府，并于2025年1月20日就职。
尽管美国大多数选民关注的焦点是经济和非法移民，但美国新总统从上任第一天起就必须处理重要的外交政策议程。这项外交政策议程包括中东、缅甸、苏丹和乌克兰的战争。外交政策议程还包括与欧盟等朋友以及中国等竞争对手的贸易争端。
当然，中美之间的分歧领域不仅包括贸易问题，还包括南海主权争议、维护台海和平、人权、香港事态发展等议题。
共和党总统候选人、前总统川普经常谈论中国，常常是威胁要将中国输美商品的关税提高到100％。现任副总统贺锦丽在8月的民主党全国代表大会上的提名演说中简短地提到了中国，并承诺她将确保「美国，而不是中国，赢得21世纪的竞争」。
▲ 川普曾在2016年与前总统蔡英文通话。（图／总统府／路透）
准总统必须做出的第一个与中国有关的决定是，是否在转接的过渡期间再度与台湾的总统通话。例如川普于2016年12月2日选举日至2017年1月20日就职日之间的转接期间，与蔡英文总统通了电话。
笔者称之为涉华决定，而不仅仅是涉台决定。有些人可能想将此问题视为台湾与准总统之间的双边问题来分析。但现实情况是，这样的通话将对美中台关系在接下来的几个月乃至几年里产生重大影响。
准总统与赖清德总统可能通电话的原因包括：
一、先例：通话的先例是准总统川普和蔡总统通话时所建立的。大部分美中台的关系是透过先例而创造的，例如台湾总统过境美国，或是台湾参加亚太经合组织（APEC）或亚洲开发银行（ADB）等某些国际组织。同样，台湾无法参加国际民航组织（ICAO）、国际刑警组织（Interpol）、世界卫生组织（WHO）等其他国际组织也是有先例的，这些不太可能改变。
▲ 前总统蔡英文去年访问中南美洲友邦，过境美国时，与时任众议院议长麦卡锡会面。（图／翻摄麦卡锡推特）
二、中国不能决定美国准总统与谁通话：准总统可以与任何他们希望会见或通话的人会面或通话。来自中国等外国的压力不应成为准总统与谁会面或通话的决定因素。
三、感谢台湾：准总统可以感谢台湾对美国的友谊。这包括从美国进口商品、台积电等企业在美国的投资，当然也包括美国企业对台湾的武器销售。正如准总统川普在与蔡英文总统通话后在推特上发布的那样，「有趣的是，美国向台湾出售了数十亿美元的军事装备，但我不应该接受贺电。」
四、准总统可以向中国发出信号：准总统与赖总统之间的通话将向中国发出信号，即美国将像近年来一样继续支持台湾。正如台湾政府喜欢说的，台美关系「坚如磐石」。不过，即使准总统与赖总统通话，准总统也可以重申，就职后，新总统将继续致力于美国长期以来以《台湾关系法》、美中三公报、及美国对台六项保证为基础的一中政策。
五、准总统可以向世界其他地区发出信号：准总统与赖清德总统之间的通话也很有价值，可以向世界各地的盟友和敌人发出有关新总统将如何执行外交政策的信号。准总统很可能会在转接期间与加拿大、日本、英国等盟国的代表会面或交谈。将台湾纳入此一民主集团将发出一个讯号，表明新总统对美台关系的重视。
▲ 台湾政府喜欢说台美关系「坚如磐石」。（图／路透）
另一方面，也有可能导致无法通话的原因：
一、2016年通话只是「一次性」而非先例：对台湾来说不幸的是，在2020年选举日和2021年1月20日就职之间的过渡期间，准总统拜登没有与蔡英文总统通话。就目前而言，本来可以成为两次先例的事件，可惜只有2016年的「一次性」事件。
二、如果贺锦丽获胜，她仍然是现任副总统：如果贺锦丽当选成为准总统，她仍将同时担任美国副总统。她的老板拜登总统可能会反对贺锦丽和赖清德总统的通话。尽管拜登政府采取了很多行动来表明对台湾的支持，但仍然有一定的「红线」不会跨越。例如，不同意将台北经济文化代表处更名为「台湾代表处」，以及与川普政府不同，不允许部长访问台湾。副总统贺锦丽和赖总统之间的通话可能同样是拜登总统不会同意的。
三、对未来美中关系的影响：准总统可能希望以积极的基调开展对中关系，并希望未来在各种问题上合作。例如，如果川普当选，他可能想恢复与中国的贸易谈判。如果贺锦丽当选，她可能希望在气候变迁、减少从中国出口到美国的芬太尼、前体化学品的数量或其他问题上与中国合作。因此，准总统可能会拒绝与赖清德通话。
▲ 准总统可能希望以积极的基调开展对中关系，因此可能会拒绝与赖清德通话。（图／达志影像／美联社）
四、其他优先事项：从2024年11月5日选举日到2025年1月20日就职典礼之间的10周内，准总统将有繁忙的议程。这包括为新政府选择阁员，以及与美国亲密盟友的领导人会面或交谈。对准总统来说，与赖总统的通话可能不是重要任务。
五、对台海关系的影响：如果准总统与赖总统通话，中国一定会有反应。中国可能会透过说服台湾仅存的外交盟友之一与中国断交、采取贸易报复措施或在台海周边举行军事演习来回应。从今年5月20日赖总统就职后中国大规模的「联合利剑2024A」军演，或者最近赖总统国庆演讲后的「联合利剑2024B」来看，中国的军演给台湾军队带来了巨大的压力，因为空军、陆军和海军必须采取适当措施应对。
台海关系已经处于低谷，美国准总统与赖清德总统通话只会导致两岸关系恶化。也许对台湾来说最安全的决定是告诉美国准总统：「谢谢你，但不用了！」
▲ 台海关系已经处于低谷，美国准总统与赖清德总统通话恐怕只会导致两岸关系恶化。（图／路透）
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【英文版】
The United States will have its presidential election on November 5th, after which, the “President-Elect” will begin to form their government that will take office on January 20, 2025.
Although the focus of most voters in the United States is the economy and illegal immigration, the new United States president, from their first day in office, must deal with a significant foreign policy agenda. This foreign policy agenda includes wars in the Middle East, Myanmar, Sudan, and Ukraine. The foreign policy agenda also includes trade disputes both with friends such as the European Union as well as with competitors such as China.
Of course, the areas of disagreement between China and the United States includes more issues than only trade, and includes issues such as sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea, maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait, human rights, and developments in Hong Kong.
▲ Donald J. Trump, frequently talks about China.（Photo／Reuters）
Republican Party presidential nominee, former President Donald J. Trump, frequently talks about China, often with regard to his threat to raise tariffs to 100% on Chinese imports to the United States. Current Vice President Kamala Harris briefly mentioned China in her acceptance speech as the Democratic National Convention in August, pledging that she will make sure “America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century”.
One of the first China related decisions that the President-Elect must make is whether to repeat, during the transition period, a phone call with the Republic of China (Taiwan) president, such as the call between then-President Tsia Ing-wen and then-President Elect Trump held on December 2, 2016 during the transition period between Election Day 2016 and President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2017.
This author refers to it as a China-related decision, and not only a Taiwan-related decision. Some might want to analyze this issue as only a bilateral matter between Taiwan and the President-Elect. However, the reality is that such a call will have a significant impact on China-Taiwan-U.S. relations in the subsequent months and years.
▲ The call between then-President Tsia Ing-wen and then-President Elect Trump held on December 2, 2016.（Photo／Reuters, Yu-Kang, Lee）
The reasons why the President-Elect, and President William Lai Ching-te, should have phone call include:
1. Precedent: The precedent for such a call was set when President-Elect Trump and President Tsai held their call. Much of China-Taiwan-U.S. relations are based on precedent, such as the Taiwan president’s transit stops in the United States or Taiwan’s participation in certain international organizations such as APEC or the Asian Development Bank. Similarly, Taiwan’s inability to participate in other international organizations such as International Civil Aviation Organization, Interpol, and the World Health Organization is also based on precedent, and is unlikely to change.
2. China Does Not Determine Who the U.S. President-Elect Talks To: The President-Elect can meet with, or speak to, whoever they wish to meet with or speak to. Pressure from a foreign country such as China should not be the determining factor for who the President-Elect meets with or speaks to.
3. A Thank You for Taiwan: The President-Elect can thank Taiwan for its friendship towards the United States. This includes the goods that Taiwan imports from the United States, investment in the United States by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and other Taiwan companies, and of course, weapons sales by U.S. companies to Taiwan. As President-Elect ▲ Trump posted on Twitter after his call with President Tsai., “Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call.”
▲ Trump posted on Twitter after his call with President Tsai.（Photo／Twitter）
4. President-Elect Can Send a Signal to China: A call between the President-Elect and President Lai would send a signal to China that the United States will continue to support Taiwan just as it has in recent years. As the Taiwan government likes to say, relations between Taiwan and the United States are “rock solid”. However, even if the President-Elect has a call with President Lai, the President-Elect can also repeat that after the inauguration, the new president will remain committed to the United States’ longstanding One China policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiqués, and the Six Assurances.
5. President-Elect Can Send a Signal to Other Parts of the World: A call between the President-Elect and President Lai is also valuable as a signal to allies and enemies around the world about how the new president will conduct foreign policy. It is likely that the President-Elect will, during the transition period, meet with or speak to representatives of allied countries such as the Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and others. Including Taiwan in this group of countries will send a signal about the importance the new President puts on U.S.-Taiwan relations.
On the other hand, there are reasons why the call might not occur:
1. 2016 Call Was a “One Off” and Not a Precedent: Unfortunately for Taiwan, during the transition period between Election Day in 2020 and the inauguration on January 20, 2021, President-elect Joe Biden did not have a call with President Tsai. What could have been a two-time precedent instead, for now, is a “one off” event that occurred in 2016.
▲ A call between Vice President Harris and President Lai might similarly be something that President Biden will not agree to.（Photo／Reuters）
2. If Harris Wins, She’s Still the Incumbent Vice President: If Kamala Harris is the President-Elect, she will still, simultaneously, be the Vice President of the United States. Her boss, President Biden, might oppose a call between Harris and President Lai. Although the Biden Administration has taken many actions to show its support for Taiwan, it still has certain “red lines” that it will not cross. Examples include not agreeing to change the name of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office to “Taiwan Representative Office”, and, unlike the Trump Administration, not allowing a cabinet secretary to visit Taiwan. A call between Vice President Harris and President Lai might similarly be something that President Biden will not agree to.
3. Impact on Future U.S. – China Relations: The President-Elect might want to begin U.S.-China relations on a positive note with hope for future cooperation on various issues. For example, if Trump is elected, he might want to resume trade negotiations with China. If Kamala Harris is elected, she might want to cooperate with China on climate change, reducing the amount of fentanyl “precursor” chemicals that are exported to the United States from China, or other issues. For this reason, the President-Elect might decline to have a call with President Lai.
4. Other Priorities: In the ten weeks between election day on November 5, 2024, and the inauguration on January 20, 2025, the President-Elect will have a busy agenda. This incudes selecting staff for the new government, and meeting with or speaking to leaders of close U.S. allies. For the President-Elect, a call with President Lai might not be a high priority.
▲ If the President-Elect has a call with President Lai, there will certainly be a reaction from China.（Photo／Reuters）
5. Impact on China – Taiwan Relations: If the President-Elect has a call with President Lai, there will certainly be a reaction from China. China might respond by persuading one of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies to switch diplomatic relations to China, the use of trade retaliation measures, or military exercises near Taiwan. As we saw from China’s large scale Joint Sword 2024A military exercise after President Lai’s inauguration on May 20 of this year, or the recent Joint Sword 2024B after President Lai’s national day speech, China’s military exercises put enormous strain on Taiwan’s military, because the air force, army, and navy must take appropriate measures to respond.
China – Taiwan relations are already at a low point, and a call between the President-Elect and President Lai will only cause relations to worsen. Perhaps the safest decision for Taiwan will be to tell the President-Elect of the United States “Thank you, but no thank you.”
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