张竞》外国媒体的台海军事分析已达神话水准

张竞》外国媒体的台海军事分析已达神话水准。(图/爱传媒提供)

【爱传媒张竞评论】满街都是洋和尚，念经可信不可信？

10月15日英国《太阳报》(The Sun)刊登这篇对于台海两岸军事态势奇文，对于台湾防御能力高估程度，恐怕已经到达神话水准；大家不妨看看下列原文：

On paper China’s military dwarfs that of Taiwan but a closer look reveals how kill zone beaches hostile terrain and a 500000 strong guerrilla army could inflict a Vietnam War-style humiliation on Beijing.

In order to successfully capture the island China would have to ship an enormous number of troops plus their supplies across the 80-mile Taiwan Strait.

The operation would be the largest amphibious operation in human history easily surpassing the scale of the D-Day landings.

But when they arrive on Taiwan the Chinese will have to get past defences far stronger than those faced by the Allies in WWII and significant natural obstacles.

Taiwan has a rugged coastline with steep cliffs making only 13 beaches suitable for landing which have been turned into killing zones.

If Chinese forces do manage to make it ashore they Chinese troops who make it ashore would face roughly 175000 highly trained full-time soldiers.

There are also hundreds of thousands of fully trained reservists ready to resist any attempt at occupation using bunkers honeycombing the hills as cover from which to attack the invaders.

满街都是洋和尚，念经可信不可信？

到底咱们有没有那种本事，大家看法见仁见智，但是把台湾搞成战场，究竟是要让谁爽？这位评论者军事素养高明不高明，您可以有您的评价，但是这个英国报纸报导居然还有很粗浅的英文错字，那可就是闹笑话啰！

amphibious operation 是错误用辞，应当是operations，没错！要加上那个”s”，那不是复数，而是专门指「军事作战」，operation是指作业、外科手术、运作、工作、企业、活动、行动⋯等很多意义，但军事作战就是必须加上那个”s”。不过在表示某个作战行动代名，放在实际代名前时，就要用大写，而且不要加s，例如登陆诺曼地之两栖攻略作战行动代名Operation Overlord，就是大写不加s！

有个最经典笑话就是故意去问资深军事人员When do you need joint operation?乍听之下，每个人都会认为是在何时要采取「联合作战」行动，所以个个都会长篇大论侃侃而谈，但正是因为少了那个s，所以这句英文实际上是在问「您何时需要动关节手术？」没错！joint除「联合」外，也是「关节」，所以真正答案是When I get tennis elbow打网球打到手肘关节受伤，所以要动个手术。总而言之，洋和尚念经隔靴搔痒，听听就好！

但此时又传来汉光演习兵棋推演国军大胜消息⋯⋯

假若前面那份报导是靠洋和尚念经来当「壮胆兴奋剂」，那么这个消息就更是「吓阻摇头丸」；我只能用这打油诗来表达看法：

推演是在找毛病，

电脑无法断输赢；

兵推岂能当算命，

欺诈吓阻无人信！

回头看看今年10月4日美国智库Hudson Institute 所举办以Preserving Peace in the Taiwan Strait 为主题之座谈会，其中美国智库兰德公司Scott Harold 在回应2049研究所Mark Stokes时提到：

What that tells me is as I look at Taiwan the United States and the people of Taiwan have great reason to have confidence in Taiwan and to know that whatever the global times or other Chinese propaganda outlets say Taiwan is not Afghanistan and the Afghan national government. However if I switch to sit where Mark was sitting in Beijing I do have to be worried that Taiwan might be the Taliban a force willing to fight and endure hardship to expel an invader. And in that case Beijing which possesses a military far less capable than the United States military and which does not enjoy the support of its people could be facing a long-term insurgency from a Taiwan Armed Forces and populous that have long trained to resist Chinese military coercion.

我不知道Scott Harold博士从那来的资讯，可以支持他讲出台湾有populous that have long trained to resist Chinese military coercion.而且I do have to be worried that Taiwan might be the Taliban a force willing to fight and endure hardship to expel an invader.看到这儿，我差点失笑，最近因为戏谑歌曲「塔绿班」嘲讽当道，结果引起强烈反弹，真没想过将台湾比拟成塔利班，这居然是出自洋学者之口。

唉⋯⋯洋和尚念经，疯道士起乩⋯⋯群魔乱舞⋯⋯馊主意满天飞，真是乱啊！

作者为英国博士、中华战略学会研究员，曾任国军舰长

照片为外媒截图

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