紐時賞析／海洋高溫屢破紀錄 學者指原因「不只是氣候變遷」

纽约时报报导，海洋温度每天都在破纪录。（美联社）

Ocean Heat Has Shattered Records for More Than a Year. What’s Happening?

海洋高温屡破纪录 原因不仅是气候变迁

The ocean has now broken temperature records every day for more than a year. And so far, 2024 has continued 2023’s trend of beating previous records by wide margins. In fact, the whole planet has been hot for months, according to many different data sets.

超过一年以来，海洋每天都在打破海温纪录。到目前为止，2024年延续了2023年趋势，持续大幅度打破先前创下的纪录。事实上，许多不同资料集指出，整个地球已处于炎热状态数月。

“There’s no ambiguity about the data,” said Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “So really, it’s a question of attribution.”

美国太空总署哥达德太空研究所所长、气候学家施密特表示：「这些数据没有模棱两可之处。所以说实话，这是一个归因的问题。」

Understanding what specific physical processes are behind these temperature records will help scientists improve their climate models and better predict temperatures in the future.

理解这些温度记录背后的特定物理变化过程，将协助科学家改善他们的气候模型，并在未来更能预测气温。

Last month, the average global sea surface temperature reached a new monthly high of 21.07 degrees Celsius,  according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a research institution funded by the European Union.

欧盟资助的研究机构「哥白尼气候变化服务」指上月全球海面平均温度达到摄氏21.07度的每月温度新高。

“March 2024 continues the sequence of climate records toppling for both air temperature and ocean surface temperatures,” Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, said in a statement.

哥白尼气候变化服务副主任珊曼莎．勃吉斯在一份声明中表示：「2024年3月，气温和海面温度持续刷新一系列气候纪录。」

The tropical Atlantic is abnormally warm, helping set the stage for a busy hurricane season, according to an early forecast by scientists at Colorado State University. Higher ocean temperatures provide more energy to fuel stronger storms.

美国科罗拉多州立大学科学家一份早期预测指出，热带大西洋异常温暖，为繁忙的飓风季节铺路。较高海温会提供更多能量，助长更强的风暴发展。

Global temperatures are rising long-term because the burning of fossil fuels adds greenhouse gases, which warm the planet, to the atmosphere. So far, climate change has raised the global average temperature by about 1.2 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average temperature. And because it takes more energy to heat up water than air, the oceans have absorbed the vast majority of the planet’s warming from greenhouse gases.

由于燃烧化石燃料增加大气中导致地球暖化的温室气体，全球气温长期以来一直上升。目前为止，气候变迁已使全球平均气温较工业化前均温升高摄氏1.2度。再加上加热水比加热空气需要更多能量，海洋已吸收大部分温室气体产生的暖化。

But the “massive, massive records” set over the past year are beyond what scientists would expect to see even considering climate change, Schmidt said.

但施密特说，即使是考虑到气候变迁，过去一整年创下的「大批、大批纪录」也超出科学家预期。

What’s different now, compared with this time last year, is that the planet is dealing with the effects of an El Niño event that began in July. El Niño events are natural climate patterns associated with elevated temperatures.

与去年此时相比，现在不同的是地球正在应对去年7月开始的圣婴现象影响。圣婴现象是和气温上升有关的自然气候模式。

“The temperatures that we’re seeing now, the records being broken in February and March, are actually much more in line with what we would expect,” compared with those of last year, Schmidt said. “Let’s see what happens by the summer.”

施密特称，与去年相比，「现在观察到的气温，即2月和3月打破的纪录，事实上更符合预期。让我们看看今年夏季前会发生什么」。

El Niño is weakening and expected to dissipate soon. What happens to global average temperatures then would help shed light on the temperatures of 2023, he said.

圣婴现象正在减弱且预计很快就会消散。他说，届时全球平均气温的变化将有助于说明2023年的气温。

文／Delger Erdenesanaa　译／罗方妤