海外看世界》安倍晋三遇刺和日本的外交政策（唐纳德·赫尔曼）

日本内阁会议今天决定9月27日举行悼念前首相安倍晋三的国丧，将接受海外人士参加。(图／中央社)

安倍晋三在代表自民党竞选时被自制手枪暗杀，这一令人震惊的事件，可能是日本国内政治和外交政策变革的一个门槛。虽然他是前首相，但他仍然领导着党内最大的派系，现任首相岸田文雄是他亲自挑选的。岸田认为自己有责任完成安倍未完成的外交政策，但是，岸田不是一个大胆的政策领导人，也没有政治背景来领导一场民族主义运动去实现安倍和保守党的三个未完成的目标。

这三个目标是：

1、与美国的外交、经济和军事联盟；

2、与中国维持双边关系，这种关系在政治和军事上已变得紧张，在中国已发展为区域超级大国的背景下双方经济上的联系依旧广泛；

3、修改美国起草的宪法中的和平条款，使日本有能力以正常国家的身份参与国际安全事务。

由于自民党在秋季大选中取得了决定性胜利，安倍的外交政策目标中唯一可能实现的就是修宪，尽管自民党目前已具备了满足宪法修正案法律规定所需的人数，但仍需提交必要的全民公投。这样的公投不太可能通过所需的全民投票，而国际上的反对，尤其是在亚洲和美国，将是深远的。无论是执政的精英层，还是以民众为基础的强大的全国性运动，都不可能在安倍去世后，戏剧性地重现东京在亚洲和/或世界中的作用。

美国在全球政治和制度上的领导地位正在下降。这在一定程度上是由于美国国内政治的混乱，部分原因是地缘政治和地缘经济力量在过去70年里的转移造成的(亚洲现在或将变得与北美和欧洲—过去的经济世界一样大，甚至更大)。此外，数字革命不可避免地会带来变化，也为日益相互依赖但非趋同的全球化未来世界带来了不确定性。

未来的和平与繁荣需要的不仅仅是碎片化的国家或民族主义政策，这些政策现在构成了国际倡议(例如，乌克兰战争、川普的关税、缺乏全球卫生机制等)。此外，没人能赢得核战争，数字化和常规战争可能会持续下去 — 但是如何、何地、何时是能被管控的。围绕一项适应不断变化的全球化经济和政治环境的新战略建立新的机构，现在需要的是全面和多边努力。像安倍这样的政治人士的逝去，不能成为日本全面努力军事化的原因。

安倍遇刺重新唤起了整个亚洲的恐惧，那是对日本在二战中行为的痛苦回忆。一名男子挥舞着自家车库制造的武器，带着他母亲给韩国宗教团体--统一教会捐了太多钱的愤怒而暗杀了安倍，这简直是荒谬可笑的。安倍过世不会成为重建全球新秩序的理由，也不会成为在亚洲发动核战争的诱因。

以下为英文原文：

The assassination of Shinzo Abe and Japanese foreign policy

Donald C. Hellmann，University of Washington

The startling assassination of Shinzo Abe by a hand-made gun while he was campaigning on behalf of his liberal democratic party is potentially a threshold for change in domestic politics in Japan and Japanese foreign policy. Although no longer the Prime Mister, he still headed the largest faction in the party, and the current Prime Mister, Kishida, was his hand-picked choice and that he sees his responsibility to complete the unfinished foreign policy agenda of Abe. Kishda is not a bold policy leader and doesn’t have the political backing to lead a nationalist movement, required to achieve three unfinished goals of Abe, and the conservative party.

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These are 1) the diplomatic, economic, and military alliance with the United States; 2）a bilateral relationship with China—tense politically and militarily, while economically extensive but the now with Beijing grown to be a regional super power; 3) the revision of the peace article of the American-written constitution to allow Japan the capacity to participate as a normal nation in international security.

Because the Liberal Democrats decisively won the fall election, only one of Abe’s foreign policy goals that might be achieved is constitutional revision, although the party now has the necessary numbers to meet the legal rules for a constitution amendment to the submitted for the required referendum. Such a referendum is not likely to pass the required popular vote and the international opposition, particularly in Asia and from the United States will be profound. Neither the leadership of the governing elite nor a strong mass-based national movement to reassert dramatically an expansion of Tokyo’s role in Asia and/or the world, is likely to follow the death of Abe.

The political and institutional global leadership of the United States is in the decline. That is driven in part by the disarray in American domestic politics, in part by a shift of geopolitical and geoeconomics power that has developed over the last seventy years (Asia is now or will become as large or larger than the North America and Europe—the economic world of the past). Moreover, the changes unfolding inevitably by the digital revolution also contribute to uncertainty in the increasingly interdependent but non-convergent globalized world of the future.

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Future peace and prosperity will require more than fragmented national or nationalist policies that now constitute international initiatives (e.g., The Ukrainian war, Trump’s tariffs, lack of a global health institution, etc.). Also, strategic nuclear wars are unwinnable, digital, and conventional wars are likely to persist– but how and where and when can be managed. What is needed is comprehensive and multilateral effort to build new institutions around a new strategy that is appropriate to a changing globalized economic and political environment. The loss of a political leader like Abe can’t be the cause of such a comprehensive endeavor to lead to a militarized Japan.

The very thought that assassination of Abe revived the fear of the bitter memories throughout Asia of Japanese activities in the World War II. That a man wielding a weapon made in his garage, and anger because his mother gave too much money to KOREAN religious cult- the Unification Church- is simply preposterous Happily, Abe’s death will not become the reason to restructure a new global order or the precipitate a strategic war in Asia.

【作者为美国华盛顿大学（西雅图）教授，中文版为陈淑英翻译】

（本文来源《海外看世界》，授权中时新闻网刊登）

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