2021中美重开机兵推系列八：胡振东》美中既合作又竞争

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参与中时兵推「2021中美重开机」的学者们，左起：方恩格先生、胡振东先生、淡志隆教授，担任美国角色；中间：张竞博士、戎抚天总主笔、黄介正会长，担任管制组 ；右方：介文汲大使、张登及教授、亓乐义先生，担任大陆角色。最右者为中国时报执行副总主笔陈琴富。

此次针对拜登政府的美中关系所设计的政军兵棋推演，堪称正合时宜。在经历了四年的川普政府之后，一般咸信美国与中国将会寻求双边关系的「新常态」。

川普总统确实揭露了许多中国以不公平手段，对美国的经济造成伤害，并对美国国家安全造成威胁。即使如此，中国大陆本身的作为，也促成了美国人民对于中国的负面观感。此种负面的观感，将会型塑拜登政府如何「正常化」与中国的关系。基于上述的认知，拜登实无法对中国大陆示弱。

另一方面，习近平可能认为美国的政权轮替，为一种双边关系的重开机，并且推动一种有利于中国的「新常态」。最近中国针对台湾升高紧张的行动，可能就是基于此种目的。

在兵棋推演过程中，扮演中国组的专家学者表现堪称优异。想当然耳，中方自然会要求美国遵守中国的「一中原则」，然而美方也将会重申其对华政策从未改变，并再度表明遵行美国的「一中政策」。此种政治赛局自从1979年以来从未停歇，在拜登总统时期也将不会改变。

中国的「一中原则」与美国的「一中政策」之根本差异，在于中国的「一中原则」将台湾视为中华人民共和国的一部分；而美国的「一中政策」则认为台湾的主权尚未决定。美国接受中国可有其「一中原则」，但并未承认其对台湾的主权主张，而仅奉行本身的「一中政策」。

在形式上经过预期的「一中」过招后，中国预期将会强力要求美国改正过去的错误，以使双边关系回归正常。另一方面，美国可能会寻找可获致协议的「易摘果实」，然后再处理更棘手的问题。

美中比较可能达成协议的议题包括：调整贸易政策，使进口税与贸易限制在短期内可望达成协议。疫情防控合作则为另一可达成的议题。当然中国可能不愿揭露太多最初在武汉处理疫情的状况，或是病毒的可能来源；但是在未来的疫情防控合作，则对美中双方都有利。

拜登总统将环境保护列为优先。环保合作自比人权议题更能达成协议，因环境也是中国一项紧迫议题。环保合作也可给予美中正面的形象。双方重开驻成都和休士顿的总领馆，也是正常化的一部分，依据外交规则与领务活动应该办得到。

至于重建军事互信，中国可能要求获邀参加环太平洋演习，美方或可正面回应。中国参与环太演习中的人道及灾害救援，对美国及盟邦属于低风险项目。相对地，美国可能要求对中国扩大军舰访问。

美中谈不起来的议题包括：中国将完全拒绝对新疆、西藏及香港的人权讨论。相同地，中国也不会在南海主权议题上让步。另方面，美国也不愿进行任何有关终止对台支持的讨论。美方也不会停止在南海及太平洋的军力部署。

在此美国政权转换时期，台湾展现其对区域和平与稳定的贡献，至为重要。「实力达成和平」是台湾重要的座右铭。保持坚强以吓阻任何武力改变台湾生活方式的企图，保持坚强以使台海两岸的两个中国政府与人民，得以获得和平解决争议的机缘。

（系列完）

（作者为美国国防部中台蒙处前资深处长，本文以英文写作，由本报翻译）

作者原文：

This political-military wargame on possible path of US-China relationship under President Biden was timely. After 4 years of Trump Presidency, it is expected both the United States and China will try to find a “new normal” for the relationship. While Trump had brought into light many aspects of China’s unfair practices which damaged the US economy and threatened US national security, China’s own activities have also contributed to the negative perceptions the American people has on China. This negative perception will shape what Biden can and will do to “normalize” relation with China. Under this atmosphere, Biden cannot afford to show weakness towards China.

Xi Jing-ping, on the other hand, might see the change of administration in the US as an opportunity to reset the relationship and force a “new normal” that is more favorable to China. The recent activities to heightened tension around Taiwan might have that purpose in mind.

During the wargame, I thought the team that played China did an excellent job. Certainly, China would demand the United States to adhere to China’s “One China Principle”. And, the United States is expected to reiterate its policy has not changed and restate its adherence to the United States’ “One China Policy”. This political game has been on-going since 1979. It is not expected to change under President Biden.

The fundamental difference between China’s “One China Principle” and United States’ “One China Policy” is that while “One China Principle” states Taiwan is a part of the People’s Republic of China, under the United States’ “One China Policy”, the sovereignty of Taiwan is yet to be determined. The United States accepts China has its “One China Principle” but the United States does not recognize its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. The United States will follow its own “One China Policy”.

After the expected “One China” formality, it is presumed China will come in strong to demand United States to change its mistakes from the past as a part of normalization of relationship. United States, on the other hand, is likely to look for the “low hanging fruit” to build on agreements that is achievable then move towards more difficult issues.

So, what are those issues that US and China might be able to agree on?

Adjustments in trade policy where agreements on importation duties, and trade restrictions might be achievable in the near term. Cooperation in pandemic response might be another area that is achievable. Certainly, China might not want to reveal too much of its initial COVID response in Wuhan and the possible source of the virus. Cooperation based on future response might be mutually beneficial to China and the United States.

Environmental protection is a priority item for President Biden. Cooperation on environmental protection might also be easier to achieve then topics like Human Rights. For China, environment is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed. Cooperation in environment protection will also provide a positive image for China and the United States.

Reopening of the consulates in Chendu and Houston could be a part of the normalization. It should be easily achievable, with the condition of adherence to the diplomatic rules on consulate activities.

On reinstatement of military confidence building measures, China might request future invitation to RIMPAC exercise. This is also an area the United States might be able to provide a positive response. China’s participation in Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief aspects of the RIMPAC should be of low risk to the US and its allies. In return, the US might request expanded port calls in China for US Navy ships.

What are some of the issues I believe that are “none-starters” for bilateral discussions? I believe China will totally reject any US effort to discuss human rights in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong. Similarly, China is not expected to back down from its claim of sovereignty of South China Sea. On the other hand, the US will not entertain any discussion on terminating its support for Taiwan. The US will not stop its continued presence in the Pacific, including the South China Sea.

What should Taiwan do during this time of transition? I believe it is always important for Taiwan to demonstrate its contribution to regional peace and stability. “Peace through Strength” is an important motto for Taiwan to follow. Stay strong to deter any effort to change Taiwan’s way of life through force. Stay strong so that there is a chance for peaceful resolution of the differences between the two Chinese governments and their people across the Taiwan Strait.